Scots Yes Campaign Has ‘No Chance,’ Silver Tells The ScotsmanTim Farrand
The campaign for Scottish independence has “virtually no chance” of success, the Scotsman reported, citing an interview with Nate Silver, the statistician who gave Obama a 90 percent change of winning re-election.
The polling data was “pretty definitive” with those opposed to independence at 60 percent to 55 percent of the electorate and those in favor at about 40 percent and only a “major crisis’ in England could help the Yes vote, the Edinburgh-based newspaper quoted Silver as saying.
‘‘Historically, in any Yes or No vote in a referendum, it’s actually the No side that tends to grow over time, people tend not to default to changing the status quo,” Silver told the Scotsman. He could not be immediately contacted by Bloomberg.
Silver, whose blog FiveThirtyEight will soon feature on Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN network after appearing on The New York Times website for three years, was in Edinburgh to participate in the city’s international book festival.