Europe Set to Be Cooler Than Average This Month, Forecasters SayJulia Mengewein and Rachel Morison
Most of Western Europe will stay cooler than average in July with temperatures picking up toward the end of the month, while the Nordic region will be warmer than usual, according to forecasters polled by Bloomberg.
Below-normal water temperatures in the central North Atlantic are poised to drive cooler conditions into Europe beyond the middle of the month, meteorologists at MDA Information Systems LLC said in an e-mail June 28. Weather forecasters at WSI Corp. also expects lower-than-usual temperatures for the region this month.
“Temperatures are expected to be below normal across central Europe, including Germany, in July,” Bradley Harvey, an operational meteorologist at MDA in Gaithersburg, Maryland, said by e-mail on June 28. “Near-normal temperatures will be found in the U.K.”
European power and gas prices typically fall in the middle of the year as increased daylight hours during the summer months boost solar generation and demand for heating drops. Germany’s plans to get 80 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2050, up from 22 percent last year, have damped prices to their lowest in eight years.
“Power-price trends continued to show little impetus in Germany, despite generally colder weather during the winter and a very late onset of spring,” Paolo Coghe, a Paris-based analyst at Societe Generale SA, said in an e-mailed report. “This weakness will persist and get worse during the summer season once solar production picks up.”
German power for next year, a European benchmark, declined 0.3% to 37.49 euros ($48.96) a megawatt-hour as of 11:54 a.m. Berlin time today, according to ICAP Plc data compiled by Bloomberg. The contract dropped to 37.20 euros on June 24, the lowest since March 2008.
The average temperature in Germany will be 17.7 degrees Celsius (64 degrees Fahrenheit) through July 15, according to a GFS model supplied by MetraWeather at 6:41 a.m. Berlin time today. That compares with a seasonal norm of 18.1 degrees for the coming week.
For the U.K., the average temperature in the same period is forecast at 15.6 degrees Celsius, compared with a seasonal norm of 15.9 degrees, the MetraWeather data show.
MetraWeather and MeteoGroup U.K. Ltd. expect warmer-than-usual temperatures for Western Europe in the second half of July.
“Europe is most likely becoming dominated by high pressure toward and beyond mid-July, so becoming drier and warmer for much of the continent,” Stephen Davenport, a senior energy meteorologist at MeteoGroup U.K. in London, said in an e-mail. “This would also suggest periods of low wind output for Germany, but high solar.”
Average wind generation in Germany during the past month was 4,361 megawatts per day, with a peak at 16,632 megawatts on June 2, according to EEX data on Bloomberg. Solar generation averaged 6,699 megawatts per day, with the high for the period at 23,146 megawatts, the data show.
“High pressure is expected to remain dominant across most parts of Western Europe into the third week of July,” Byron Drew, a forecaster at MetraWeather in Reading, England, said by e-mail June 28. “Temperatures will trend up to 3 degrees Celsius above normal in the U.K., Western France and Iberia.”
While Germany is expected to have near-normal temperatures in the second half of July, lower-than-usual temperatures will likely prevail at the beginning of this month, according to MetraWeather. Europe’s biggest energy market will experience average temperatures of 25 degrees through July 7, Andreas Friedrich, a meteorologist at Deutscher Wetterdienst, said by phone from Offenbach, Germany. That’s in line with the seasonal norm, based on readings from 1981 to 2010, he said.
The U.K. and Germany, which in June suffered its worst flooding in 11 years, will be mostly dry in July, Harvey said, while the Iberian peninsula and the Balkans will probably have higher-than-normal rainfall.
Scandinavia will be warmer than usual, apart from southern Sweden and Norway, according to WSI.