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SocGen’s Haigh Sees Gold Lower After Calling Rout: Commodities

Societe Generale SA’s Michael Haigh correctly predicted this year’s rout in gold by using a math problem to measure a feeling. His arithmetic says there’s worse to come.

Haigh’s algorithm, called the Principal Component Analysis model, uses 27 indicators ranging from the value of the Indian rupee to the yield on 10-year German bunds to determine what percentage of a commodity’s price movement is influenced by supply and demand, and how much is related to macroeconomic concerns, liquidity and fluctuations in the dollar.