World Grain Outlook Raised by IGC on China Corn, India WheatRudy Ruitenberg
The world’s grain harvest will be bigger in the 2013-14 season than predicted a month ago on increased estimates for corn in China and larger wheat crops in India and Canada, the International Grains Council said.
Output of grains excluding rice may rise to 1.92 billion metric tons from an estimated 1.79 billion tons in 2012-13, the London-based IGC wrote in its monthly market report today, raising its outlook for the new harvest by 10.3 million tons.
The outlook for rising grain production in the U.S., Europe and the Black Sea region has hurt corn and wheat prices. Corn is the second-worst performer on the S&P GSCI Commodity gauge behind silver this year, sliding 19 percent.
For corn, “carryovers in 2013-14 will be much more comfortable compared to the previous year, especially in the U.S., where stocks are expected to more than double,” the grains council wrote.
World corn production may jump 10 percent to 944.6 million tons from 855.7 million tons in 2012-13, the IGC forecast, raising the outlook by 5.7 million tons. That will boost ending stocks to 149 million tons from 122 million tons, it said.
The outlook for China’s corn crop was lifted by 4 million tons to 214 million tons, climbing from production of 208 million tons in the previous season. U.S. farmers may gather 355 million tons of corn from 273.8 million tons in 2012, the IGC forecast, cutting its outlook by 2 million tons.
The European Union’s corn harvest may jump to 64.4 million tons from 54.8 million tons on production gains in Romania and Hungary, which suffered from drought last year, while Brazil’s output may fall to 72 million tons from 78 million tons.
Global trade in corn may climb to 97.5 million tons from 94.5 million tons, with imports by China advancing to 7 million tons from 4 million tons. EU overseas purchases are predicted to fall to 6.5 million tons from 10 million tons.
The U.S. is expected to reclaim its spot as the world’s biggest corn exporter from Brazil, with shipments climbing to 32 million tons from 21.5 million tons. Brazil’s corn exports are seen falling to 20.5 million tons from 27 million tons.
Farmers across the world are forecast to reap 682.1 tons of wheat, 4.1 percent more than a 2012-13 crop estimated at 655.1 million tons and 2.2 million tons more than predicted last month, according to the IGC.
Stocks of the world’s most-traded grain are seen climbing to 180 million tons from 178 million tons.
Wheat production in the EU may climb to 137.1 million tons from 130.3 million tons on bigger crops in Spain and Romania, even as the U.K.’s harvest is predicted to slide to 11.8 million tons from 13.3 million tons.
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are all forecast by the IGC to boost wheat production, with farmers in the former Soviet Union lifting output to 99.9 million tons from 77.2 million tons.
The U.S. wheat crop will probably decline to 52 million tons from 61.8 million tons, while Canada’s may rise to 29 million tons from 27.2 million tons, according to the IGC, which raised the forecast for the latter by 1 million tons.
“Although there is continued uncertainty about harvest prospects in some major producers, global wheat availabilities are still set to be ample over the year ahead,” the IGC said.
China’s harvest, the world’s biggest, may drop to 118 million tons from 120.6 million tons, the IGC forecast. India may produce 93.5 million tons of wheat, down from 94.9 million in 2012 and 1 million tons more than predicted a month ago.
Global wheat trade is expected to fall to 136.8 million tons in 2013-14 from 138.5 million tons in the previous season, with Russia cutting imports to 100,000 tons from 1.2 million tons on a bigger domestic harvest.
Barley production worldwide is forecast to climb to 137.7 million tons from 129.7 million tons, lifted by bigger crops in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Morocco, according to the IGC.