Europe to Be Cooler Than Usual for Third Month: ForecastersRachel Morison and Julia Mengewein
Most of Europe will be cooler than normal for a third month in May while the Nordic region will be warmer than average, according to weather forecasters.
Below-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic will probably limit any temperature increases in central Europe and the U.K., Bradley Harvey, an operational meteorologist at MDA Information Systems LLC, said by e-mail. Meteorologists at Deutscher Wetterdienst, WSI Corp., Meteogroup U.K. Ltd. and MetraWeather also forecast below-normal temperatures.
“There is a signal for higher-than-average pressure to persist close to the U.K. or close to northwest Europe,” Matt Hugo, a forecaster at MetraWeather, said by e-mail. “This may lead to a cool north or northwesterly air mass becoming established across central and northern areas of Europe around the middle of May.”
European power and natural gas prices typically decline in the summer months as increased daylight hours boost solar generation and demand for heating drops. Gas storage levels across Europe fell to a record on April 14, supporting prices in the coming months as operators refill depleted stocks, Societe Generale SA said last week.
The average temperature in the U.K. will be 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) through May 14, according to a GFS model supplied by MetraWeather at 11:42 a.m. London time. That compares with a seasonal norm of 11.2 degrees for the coming week.
In Germany, the average temperature will be 11.9 degrees through May 14, the data show. The seasonal norm, based on records from 1981 to 2010, is about 13 degrees Celsius, Christian Herold, a meteorologist at DWD, said by telephone from Offenbach, Germany.
The country generated 16.2 terawatt-hours of its power from wind and solar in the first three months of this year, down 17 percent from a year earlier, according to data from the Muenster-based International Economic Forum for Renewable Energies, the nation’s energy-research institute.
Wind generation in Germany is forecast to increase from May 3 and solar production is expected to improve in the seven days from May 6, said Stephen Davenport, a senior energy meteorologist in London at MeteoGroup.
Power generation from solar panels in Germany could rise to 25,000 megawatts on single days, Patrick Hummel, a Zurich-based analyst at UBS AG said in a research note last week. The price for power to be delivered in May dropped as much as 2 percent today to a record 31.75 euros a megawatt-hour, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. The contract is headed for a 9.5 percent loss this month.
Temperatures are predicted to be above average in Scandinavia and some neighboring countries through May 11, according to MetraWeather’s Hugo.
Southern Europe and the Nordic region will be warmer than average in June, with the rest of the continent cooler than usual, WSI said. All of Europe, except the U.K. and western parts of the mainland, will be warmer than normal in July, according to WSI.