Rupiah Forwards Have Best Week Since February After Debt SaleYudith Ho
Indonesia’s rupiah forwards completed their best week since February after investor demand at an overseas debt auction signaled increasing appetite for local assets. Sovereign bonds rose.
The government raised $3 billion from 10- and 30-year notes this week, with bids totaling $12.5 billion, according to a finance ministry statement. The 2023 bonds were sold at a yield of 3.50 percent, a record low for non-Islamic dollar securities issued by the Southeast Asian nation. Bank Indonesia kept borrowing cost at an unprecedented 5.75 percent low yesterday, as predicted by all 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“The rupiah turned around and began to strengthen after the global sale, showing appetite for Indonesian assets is still strong,” said Rully Nova, a currency analyst at PT Bank Himpunan Saudara 1906 in Jakarta. “The sale will add to foreign reserves and reduce the rupiah’s volatility by extension.”
One-month non-deliverable forwards advanced 0.6 percent this week and 0.1 percent today to 9,725 per dollar as of 3:46 p.m. in Jakarta, the biggest gain since the five days ended Feb. 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They traded at a 0.2 percent discount to the spot rate, which rose 0.3 percent to 9,710, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. The rupiah was steady today.
A daily fixing used to settle the derivatives was set at 9,710 by the Association of Banks in Singapore, from 9,756 on April 5. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed one basis point this week to 5.96 percent.
Foreign reserves may recover this quarter, Nova said. They totaled $104.8 billion in March after dropping $8 billion during the first quarter, the biggest decline since Bloomberg began compiling the figures in 1998.
The cost to insure the nation’s government debt using five-year credit-default swaps declined this week, dropping 16 basis points to 142 in New York yesterday, set for the most since the five days ended Nov. 23, according to CMA, which is owned by McGraw-Hill Cos. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.
The yield on the 5.625 percent bonds due May 2023 dropped seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 5.51 percent for the week, the lowest since March 25, prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association show. The rate fell five basis points today. The new 10-year dollar-denominated notes with a coupon rate of 3.375 percent yielded 3.21 percent today, data compiled by Bloomberg show.