Heating Oil Below 200-Day Average May Drop: Technical Analysis

Heating oil may drop to $2.9038 by the end of the week after trading below the 200-day moving average for the sixth straight session, according to a technical analysis by T&K Futures & Options.

The $2.9038 price represents the intraday low on March 4, which was the lowest level for the front-month contract since Dec. 11, when prices touched $2.898 a gallon.

“If it breaches the Dec. 11 low, the next target is all the way down to $2.51, the intraday low on June 29,” based on a weekly chart, Michael Smith, president of T&K in Port Saint Lucie, Florida, said in an interview. “We have a confluence of a technical breakdown and a seasonal breakdown where there is no more demand for winter heating oil.”

Heating oil has fallen seven of the past eight days and has settled below the 200-day average since Feb. 28.

“It’s not bullish until we get a rally above and close above the 50-day moving average,” Smith said. Front-month heating oil has not settled above the 50-day average of $3.0813 since Feb. 25.

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