Aluminum May Extend 2013’s Drop to $1,911: Technical Analysis

Aluminum may drop to about $1,911 a metric ton if it falls below an area consisting of the 200-day moving average and a six-month uptrend, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.

The attached chart shows that the metal has fallen below its 200-day moving average that is currently at about $2,001 and a six-month uptrend line at about $1,984. A drop below that area means prices may slide to an uptrend line drawn from 2009 to 2013 at about $1,911, Karen Jones, a technical strategist at Commerzbank in London, said by phone yesterday.

“It will be pretty rapid,” she said, referring to a possible drop to the $1,911 target within a week of falling below the six-month trend line.

Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange is down 3.8 percent this year and today fell to $1,993.75 a ton, the lowest price since Nov. 28. Demand for the metal, used in cars and beverage cans, will lag supply by 1.82 million tons this year, according to Barclays Plc.

Prices may “struggle” to rebound to the 55-day moving average that’s at about $2,086, Jones said. The September high of about $2,200 and the January peak of about $2,184 remain “key” resistance levels, she said.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.