German Day-Ahead Electricity Price Rises on Lower Wind Forecast

German electricity for next-day delivery rose as forecasts of declining wind generation indicated lower supplies.

Baseload German power for Wednesday, for delivery around the clock, climbed as much as 10 percent to 58 euros ($77.05) a megawatt-hour and was last traded at 56.90 euros at 1:45 p.m. Berlin time, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. Day-ahead power settled at 59.74 euros in a daily auction on EPEX Spot SE, according to data on Bloomberg. Wind generation tomorrow will drop to almost zero from a maximum of 10 gigawatts today, Meteologica SA, a Madrid-based weather forecaster, said on its website.

February power gained for the first time in 11 days. The contract rose as much as 2.1 percent to 45.50 euros a megawatt-hour, recovering from yesterday’s record low of 44.50 euros.

Profitability for German gas-fed power plants for 2014 fell 3.5 percent to minus 14.72 euros a megawatt-hour, the lowest since Bloomberg started tracking the data in 2009. The country’s shift to renewable energy sources has cut into the profits of gas-fed power plants that remain offline when intermittent solar and wind power floods the grid.

More than 45 percent, or 50,000 megawatts, of central European gas and power capacity needs to be closed to stabilize profits, according to Per Lekander, a Paris-based analyst for UBS AG.

“European power generation cannot be stabilized through cost cuts,” he said today in an e-mailed note. “The solution should instead be large-scale capacity closures.”

In France, total demand rose 2.1 percent to 489.5 terawatt-hours in 2012 as the coldest weather in three decades drove up use of home heating, the country’s grid operator said today. French industrial power demand fell 4 percent last year as car and steel factories slowed output amid an economic slump, according to a statement from Reseau de Transport d’Electricite.

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