Home Prices in U.S. Fell Less Than Forecast in Year to May

Residential real estate prices declined less than forecast in the year ended May, another sign that the housing market is on the mend.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities decreased 0.7 percent from May 2011, the smallest 12-month fall since September 2010, after dropping 1.8 percent in the year ended April, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 29 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 1.4 percent fall.

Stabilizing prices could help drive a housing market that’s starting to recover three years after the end of the recession. Federal Reserve policy makers have said residential construction is a bright spot in the recovery even as unemployment remains a concern to households.

“This is great news that certainly bucks the trend of other data that points to an economy that’s slowing,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “It’ll be a salve for a lot of U.S. households if we continue to see price gains in housing.”

Consumer spending stagnated in June as Americans used the biggest gain in incomes in three months to boost savings, indicating a weak handoff to the second half of the year, figures from the Commerce Department also showed today. Household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, were unchanged after a 0.1 percent decrease the prior month that was previously reported as little changed.

Stock Futures

Stock-index futures were little changed after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in September fell less than 0.1 percent to 1,379.4 at 9:24 a.m. in New York.

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from declines of 0.8 percent to 2.6 percent. The Case-Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the May data was influenced by transactions in April and March.

Home prices adjusted for seasonal variations increased 0.9 percent in May from a month earlier. Unadjusted prices climbed 2.2 percent in May as all 20 cities showed gains.

“We need to remember that spring and early summer are seasonally strong buying months, so this trend must continue throughout the summer and into the fall,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “The housing market seems to be stabilizing, but we are definitely in a wait-and-see mode for the next few months.”

Better Gauge

The year-over-year gauge provides better indications of trends in prices, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller group. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economists who created the index.

Twelve of the 20 cities in the index showed a year-over-year gain, led by a 12 percent increase in Phoenix.

Atlanta led declines, with a 15 percent drop.

There were 2.39 million existing homes for sale in June, down from an average supply of 2.93 million in 2011 and 3.22 million in 2010, data from the National Association of Realtors show.

The same NAR report indicated the median price of an existing home climbed 7.9 percent to $189,400 last month, the biggest gain since February 2006.

Fiscal Cliff

Companies such as Weyerhaeuser Co. are concerned the so-called fiscal cliff at year’s end -- when tax cuts on wages, capital gains, dividends and estates are scheduled to lapse -- as well as longer-term domestic fiscal policy will hurt growth.

“The good news for us this year is that the housing market seems to be shaking off that concern at this point in time,” Daniel Fulton, Weyerhaeuser’s president and chief executive officer, said on a July 27 earnings call. “We’re encouraged, but I think we still have a confidence issue to deal with among home buyers and the general public because it not only affects homes sales, it affects retail sales and overall employment.”

Borrowing costs remain attractive. The average rate on a 30-year fixed loan dropped to 3.49 percent last week, the lowest in data going back to 1972, according to Freddie Mac.

Federal Reserve policy makers, led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, meet this week to discuss whether further measures are needed to boost growth and push down an unemployment rate that’s been stuck above 8 percent for 41 consecutive months -- the longest stretch in the post-World War II era.

               1-months 3-months  1-year  2-years  3-years
               earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier
US Composite-20   2.24%    3.61%   -0.66%   -5.13%   -0.73%
Chicago           4.46%    3.13%   -3.03%  -10.89%  -12.21%
Atlanta           3.96%    5.47%  -14.54%  -18.55%  -17.11%
San Francisco     3.88%    8.54%    0.64%   -4.84%   12.58%
Minneapolis       3.12%    2.82%    4.70%   -7.52%    3.28%
Phoenix           2.67%    7.49%   11.47%    0.83%    8.07%
Seattle           2.64%    6.50%    0.59%   -6.44%   -7.78%
Portland          2.64%    4.24%    0.44%   -8.71%   -8.08%
Washington DC     2.51%    6.14%    2.77%    1.63%    9.48%
Cleveland         2.41%    5.25%   -0.06%   -6.31%   -2.88%
               1-months 3-months  1-year  2-years  3-years
               earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier
Boston            2.36%    3.04%   -0.15%   -3.39%    1.28%
Los Angeles       2.21%    3.91%   -1.96%   -5.10%    4.13%
Denver            2.12%    5.48%    3.66%    0.19%    3.80%
Tampa             2.04%    5.12%    2.52%   -5.81%   -7.19%
Las Vegas         1.88%    2.96%   -3.19%   -9.57%  -15.48%
Dallas            1.86%    5.20%    3.79%   -1.16%    1.80%
Miami             1.43%    2.77%    3.43%   -2.04%   -0.86%
New York          1.42%    0.84%   -2.85%   -5.91%   -6.29%
Charlotte         1.00%    4.36%    0.89%   -3.05%   -5.81%
San Diego         0.86%    2.68%   -1.11%   -6.16%    5.51%
Detroit           0.36%   -5.49%    0.61%   -3.28%   -5.64%
NOTE: The S&P/Case-Shiller (R) Home Price Indices are
constructed from data on sales of individual properties.  With
this method, changes in the index are derived only from actual
changes in selling prices of individual properties.