Tom Keene Talks to Standard Chartered's Gerard Lyons
Will the IMF lower its global GDP number?
They should probably tweak things. America’s drowning in debt, Europe’s imploding, and Asia’s cooling.
What would you like to hear in Obama’s speech on jobs?
The President must be aiming his comments at restoring confidence, particularly in America for those companies that have the ability to spend but are thinking twice. On policy, I’d like to think the President will make clear he’s going to try stimulus in the near term. On fundamentals you can’t stop what’s coming, as people repay debt. But I think he needs to be looking at measures to get people off long-term unemployment.
Didn’t we try stimulus already?
If we had not had the policy boost we had, the Western economies would be in an even worse situation. America, Britain, and parts of Europe were up to their eyeballs in debt. The governor of the Bank of England has said Britain is halfway through a seven-year de-leveraging. America is like that too.
What do you see for the U.S. this fall?
Lower gasoline prices will put more money in people’s pockets. The President’s tax incentives might encourage firms to bring forward investments from next year to this. Early next year I believe the Fed will have to engage in further quantitative easing because we could see another shock, more likely out of Greece.