Skip to content
Business

Goldman Sachs Almost Doubles Precious-Metals Returns Forecast

Goldman Sachs Almost Doubles Precious-Metals Returns Forecast

Returns from precious metals will be almost twice as strong as predicted last month, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, citing an increased chance of further Federal Reserve actions to spur U.S. economic growth.

Precious metals will generate a 12-month return of 30 percent, more than September’s 17 percent estimate, according to a Goldman Sachs report dated yesterday by analyst Jeffrey Currie. Industrial metals will return 25 percent, above the prior 15 percent prediction, and the forecast for energy was maintained at 27 percent, the report shows.

Fed officials were prepared in September to ease monetary policy “before long,” minutes of their Sept. 21 session showed this month. Policy makers will meet next on Nov. 2-3. Speculation that the Fed will engage in a second round of so-called quantitative easing has helped to lift gold to a record and copper to the highest level in more than two years.

“As the likelihood of QE2 has helped diminish market concerns about sharp macro deterioration, relative commodity performance has been increasingly tied to fundamentals,” Currie said in the report. “In addition to gold and platinum, we are most constructive on copper, zinc, corn and crude oil.”

Goldman Sachs this week raised three-month and one-year estimates for gold prices to $1,400 an ounce and $1,650 an ounce, respectively. Copper may climb to $11,000 a metric ton by the end of 2011 as stockpiles shrink, the bank said last week. Today Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month estimate for corn to $6.25 a bushel from $5.

“We expect the recent tightening of corn balances on strong demand growth from ethanol, as well as sharply lower U.S. yields, will lend further support to corn prices despite the recent rally,” Goldman said. Wheat prices will remain elevated and volatile for now and will drop in the “medium term,” the bank said.

Goldman Sachs forecast a 20 percent return from the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Index over 12 months, compared with the prior 19 percent. The gauge is up 2.3 percent this year.