A Possibly Crazy Idea: Are Local TV Stations Poised For A Comeback?

I am playing around with an idea, and I have no clue as to whether it’s totally offbase or not. Nevertheless! Thought I’d struggle through my preliminary reasoning here and see what you all think about it.

The idea is this: While local TV stations are getting killed in this current environment, they are uniquely poised among media serving local markets to bounce back, and bounce back more strongly, once the economy turns around.

Embedded in this notion are the following assumptions:

1. That local car dealer advertising will stabilize after a dreadful period of pullback, and that TV will hold onto the remaining ads better than other media.

2. That classified ads will not come back to newspapers in any significant way.

3. That the familiarity of TV will continue to beat back or at least significantly marginalize new Web-related ways for local businesses to reach consumers.

4. That the big broadcast networks will not find a way, in the near-term, to bypass their local network affiliates and get their programming to consumers.

I ask you all: Am I right? Am I nuts? In either event, why do you think so? I’m calling a bunch of people to try to get a sense of what execs and dealmakers think, but while I do that I’m curious to see what responses this blog post may elicit.

    Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.