Analyst Actions: Oshkosh, Lam Research, Fair Isaac
KEYBANC DOWNGRADES OSHKOSH TO HOLD FROM BUY
Keybanc analyst Steve Barger says Oshkosh's (OSK) $0.28 first quarter GAAP loss was worse than his $0.10 loss estimate.
Given much weaker Access Equipment end markets, more challenging conditions in Fire & Emergency and Commercial, Barger is concerned about OSK's ability to reduce its debt levels in fiscal year 2009 (September) and potentially fiscal year 2010 is greatly reduced.
While OSK has withdrawn guidance and isn't updating its outlook, he thinks the broader implication is OSK's EPS will be much lower than Street's $1.53 fiscal year 2009 estimate, cash generation is going to be lower than thought, and debt reduction could be anemic.
CREDIT SUISSE CUTS LAM RESEARCH TO UNDERPERFORM FROM NEUTRAL
Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar says Lam Research (LRCX) cuts $937 million calendar year 2009 revenue estimate to $697 million and $1.150 billion for calendar year 2010 to $1.040 billion; widens $0.48 2009 loss estimate to $1.64 loss, and $0.43 EPS for 2010 to $0.07 loss.
Kumar sees average earnings of just around breakeven from 2009 to 2011. He notes the company's tangible book value is around $10.6 now and will drop to $9 a share, and absolute downside can be more than 50% if the stock retrenches to one times book multiples the given lack of earnings power.
He also cites capacity overhang in memory. He notes NAND has a substitute, unlike DRAM. He cuts $14 price target to $12.50.
WEDBUSH MORGAN CUTS FAIR ISAAC TO SELL FROM HOLD
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Nemeroff says he's downgrading Fair Isaac (FIC) on what he views as a significant and further deterioration in its high margin Scoring business, as well as his and FIC's expectations that the selling environment for FIC's products and services isn't likely to improve until the end of fiscal year 2009 (September) at the earliest.
Nemeroff believes there could be increasing risk to cash flows over the next few quarters as the business environment remains tough, or weakens. He notes first quarter results were weak.
He cuts $1.51 fiscal year 2009 EPS view to $0.98, and $15 target to $12.