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The Failure of Exports

We’ve seen a collapse of manufacturing jobs since 2000. Is this because of productivity growth or because the jobs have been moved out of the country?

Here’s a piece of evidence that suggests that productivity growth is not the cause. In 1997 the BLS, as part of its employment projections, did a forecast of export and import growth over the next ten years (actually 1996-2006). They predicted 104% growth in real exports over that period (roughly doubling) and 86% growth in real imports.