Catching up with bond market doom seers
I have an online story up called “A Season for Cassandras,” about the vindication of folks who had been dismissed as wacky “perma-bears” thanks to the current credit and housing market meltdowns. It’s not meant to be a comprehensive list nor is it meant to suggest that the derided economists and analysts were wrong about everything until now. Case in point is Northern Trust’s Director of Economic Research Paul Kasriel. His general economic predictions have often been spot on and he even won the prestigious Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate 2005 forecast from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey.
Looking for more on these folks current views? Most have excellent web sites. Economist and NYU professor Nouriel Roubini is a frequent blogger while Northern Trust posts much of Kasriel’s analysis on its economics research site. John Hussman, who manages the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund (Symbol:HSTRX) and Strategic Growth Fund (HSGFX), posts weekly commentaries that run the gamut from stocks to economics to the Flying Wallendas. Vacationing author and fund adviser Nassim Nicholas Taleb can be found on his own somewhat helter-skelter web site or blogging occasionally at a popular quant finance site, as I hit on the other day. Money manager David Merkel also has many interesting insights on his site, The Aleph Blog.
Among the professional writers, Jim Grant has an lengthy track record in his fine bi-weekly newsletter, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. You can also find him writing columns on Forbes’ web site. Richard Bookstaber blogs, mainly items related to or growing out of his book, which I also highly recommend, A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds and the Perils of Financial Innovation. Peter Bernstein has a web site for his newsletter though not a blog, sadly. And that’s a fact Jack, for today.
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