China's Trade Surplus Gets Dangerous

Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green sees Beijing making economic history this year with an estimated $400 billion account surplus

Think you've already seen the biggest surpluses out of China? Are you sitting down? We believe China's current account surplus will balloon to $400 billion this year, or 12.8% of gross domestic product, up from $256 billion in 2006. This is a massive number, the biggest surplus—in dollar terms—the world has ever seen. Our forecast is also significantly bigger than that of the World Bank (8.3% of GDP), the International Monetary Fund (10% of GDP), and as far as we can tell, the rest of the street, too.

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