Magazine cover curse evaded--so far
About four weeks ago I (together with my co-author David Henry) wrote a cover story for BusinessWeek entitled "It's a Low, Low, Low-Rate World: Why money may stay cheap longer than you think".
We closed the article the evening of Wednesday, February 7. It was released on businessweek.com after market close on Thursday February 8. At that point the rate on the 10-year Treasury bond, according to Bloomberg, was 4.73
On February 12, Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture blog wrote a post entitled "Uh-Oh: It's A Low, Low, Low, Low-Rate World.". His first comment:
Damn! Now I have to go sell all my Bonds!
Barry then went on to say
We've discussed the impact of these sorts of magazine covers before. The most reliable are the general interest press (Time, Newsweek, etc.). We have seen some uncanny peaks and valleys from the Economist, Businessweek, Forbes and Fortune before.
Of course, since the article came out, the 10-year rate has dropped to 4.50 (as of Friday).
So here's the question (and it's an honest one). What's the right time frame to assess a BW cover story? Short, medium, or long? One month, one year, or five years? Have I escaped the cover curse (or Ritholtz more elegantly puts it, the "magazine cover indicator")? Or will it still return to haunt me?