Drift Lower Still Likely

Though we're in the summer doldrums, recent action suggests weakness ahead

By Paul Cherney

From Cherney Market Analysis

There has not been a substantial change in the technical condition of the markets.

Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have already had closes below price levels that suggest to me weaker prices for a test of supports S&P 500 1206-1183 and NASDAQ 2106-2076 and unless I see a close in the S&P 500 over 1245 or a close in the NASDAQ over 2195, I will expect some sort of a drift lower. The supports mentioned are not that far from current prices.

I would start to become concerned that my expectations for a drift lower are wrong if the S&P 500 managed to produce a close above 1236.24 or the NASDAQ managed a close over 2174.55.

Right now, we are in the summer doldrums when thin volume can see flat trade or volatile trade, but I have already seen prices undercut levels that suggest to me that there should be a drift lower. At this time I do not think that there can be a big downdraft unless there is a headline of undeniably bearish importance.


• NASDAQ immediate intraday resistance is a shelf 2139-2143.92, stacked at 2146.49-2157.98 (focus 2151-2158). Then 2165-2185.91, resistance gets thick 2177.85 and higher. Anytime immediate resistances are exceeded, they convert to supports until proven otherwise.

• S&P 500 intraday resistance is a shelf 1222.50-1225.08, there is another shelf of resistance 1222.64-1227.61 Resistance is stacked and formidable at 1229-1239.76. A combination of several intraday plateaus creates a focus of resistance at 1238-1242.62, but resistance runs all the way 1245.81. The next focus of resistance above 1245 is 1249.23-1267.


• NASDAQ immediate intraday support is 2135.69-2122.86. The next well-defined layer of support is 2106-2039 with a focus of support 2106-2076 (very strong and should hold if tested).

• The S&P 500 has immediate intraday support in the form of a thin shelf 1219-1215. The next meaningful support for the S&P 500 is 1206-1165 with a focus of support 1206-1183 (very strong and should hold if tested).

Disclaimer: Use of the information provided by Cherney Market Analysis, Inc., is subject to the Terms of Use contained on its website, paulcherney.com

Cherney is president of Cherney Market Analysis

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