Buyers Still Hold Sway
By Paul Cherney
I think the upside is limited but intraday declines in prices have not been able to attract aggressive sellers, so the buyers still have control of the markets. Price, volume and breadth measures have not broken down and until they do, I have to maintain a positive bias.
But Wednesday's price action does raise the bar for retracements. I have held that I would become concern that a shift toward profit-taking would probably be in place if the Nasdaq posted a close under 2144.78, or the S&P 500 posted a close under 1212.21, but now, short-term concerns would rise if the Nasdaq posted a close under 2165.44. The index has a focus of support at 2167-2165.44. This area has been tested several times and has held over the past 4 trade days. This has become an important layer of support where buyers have moved in consistently, so, if there is a Nasdaq close below this area, that would suggest to me that a shift in sentiment has occurred.
For the S&P 500, I would become concerned if the index posted a close below 1219.80.
Immediate Intraday Resistances:
• Nasdaq immediate intraday resistance is 2186.01-2193.19.
• If the Nasdaq can push above 2193.19, Nasdaq intraday resistance based on intraday prices from May and June, 2001, finds the next layer of intraday resistance at 2205.54-2264.58, with a distinct layer of resistance at 2211-2249, with a focus at 2211-2233.33.
• S&P 500 intraday resistance starts at 1231, then becomes thick at 1232.32-1238.36. The next meaningful focus of resistance is 1249.23-1267, This area looks like a natural stopping point to me, but as stated at the beginning of the comment, the market would have move lower, break supports or issue some other technical evidence of weakness to suggest that this area was a top.
Immediate Intraday Supports:
• Nasdaq support: 2175-2165.44 overlapped at 2167-2144.78, with a thin shelf at 2135-2122.
• S&P 500 has immediate intraday support at 1231.79-1223.03, with a focus at 1226.07-1224.70. There is a thin shelf of support at 1219-1215, then 1206-1183.
• S&P 500 resistance is 1232-1286.62, with a focus of resistance at 1249.23-1267. A test of this focus is still possible, but a move below 1219.80 would raise doubts.
• Nasdaq daily charts resistance above 2193.19 becomes thick at 2263.75-2328.05.
Cherney is president of Cherney Market Analysis