A Positive Tone for Stocks
By Paul Cherney
The strength demonstrated by price and volume momentum in the lift from Thursday's lows usually has a lingering effect. I think there is potential for additional gains, but a day or two of consolidation can happen anytime.
If oil prices move above $61.50, the equity markets would probably experience weakness.
In an intermediate term (the next as few as 3 or as many as 8 trade days), I expect the dominant tone of the markets to remain positive. It is next week, after the July expirations of options and futures on on Friday, July 15, when concerns about a lack of attendance start to rise. (Note: In the previous comment I incorrectly identified Friday, July 22, as expiration.) Earnings reports should keep interest in place until closer to Friday, July 22, but summer vacations are coming in August and I am concerned that once the bulk of earnings are out of the way, markets might not be able to push much higher than the levels established later this week or early next week.
• Nasdaq resistances are 2134-2154 and 2150-2165, then 2170.99-2192. This makes the 2150-2154 area a focus of resistance.
• The S&P 500 has immediate intraday resistance 1224-1229.11. The index tested this level in Tuesday's trading by printing a high of 1225.54. This is a natural place for a day or 2 stall. A close above 1229.11 would be a short-term bullish move, next resistance is from all the way back in the spring of 2001 at 1232-1286.62 with a focus of resistance 1255-1267. A short-term bullish event for the S&P 500 would be an opening lift that pushes prices past the 1229.11 in the first few minutes of trading. This would increase the chances for a test of the 1255-1267 area of resistance over the following 3 to 5 trade days.
• Nasdaq support: 2137-2124.88. Next support is 2106-2085.
• S&P 500 has immediate intraday support 1220-1214, and a layer of thick support 1212.19-1207.79.
Cherney is president of Cherney Market Analysis