Short-Term Picture Brightens
By Paul Cherney
In my July 1 comment, I said I thought downside and upside were probably limited this week. Tuesday's price action definitely delivered limited downside. Tuesday also delivered more on the upside than I thought was possible.
It is difficult to ascribe huge importance to the action on Tuesday, but I would be in a state of denial if I could not offer the ultimate assessment that the price activity has improved the short-term prospects.
This is a holiday-shortened week. On Friday, the June employment report will be released. It would not be a surprise to see a flat Thursday ahead of the report, so that leaves Wednesday as a day when there could be a little more on the upside.
Oil still remains a wild card, but I think it would have to move to $61.00 per barrel or higher to create a short-term problem for the equity markets. The equity markets seem less preoccupied with interest rates as equity prices were able to lift Tuesday while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved higher, so maybe there is hope in the air due to the second-quarter reporting season; sometimes hope for the earning season can support a lift into the third week of the month of July.
Immediate Intraday Resistances:
• The Nasdaq has moved above 2066-2076.16, which has now converted to support. After reviewing intraday charts, I am abandoning the 2077-2088 resistance level due to 2 distinct shelves. The Nasdaq has a focus of resistance at 2079-2085.04; the next intraday resistance is 2089-2112, with a thick layer at 2089-2095. I don't think that the Nasdaq will be able to move above the 2089-2095 level on Wednesday, but if it does, I would expect a test of 2100-2106.75. The next layer of resistance for the Nasdaq is 2127-2164.
• Immediate resistance for the S&P 500 is 1206-1208.84. Prints above 1208.84 for more than four minutes open the upside for tests of 1212.00-1219.10.
• Immediate Nasdaq support is 2076-2066 then 2060-2052.10.
• The S&P 500 has extensive sideways supports which makes it unlikely that the index will show a dramatic decline.
• The S&P 500 has support at 1204-1198, then 1194-1185.19.
Cherney is president of Cherney Market Analysis