Caution Likely Ahead of the Fed
By Paul Cherney
Crude oil futures remain a wild card for the markets. On Wednesday, the weekly inventory numbers will be reported at 10:30 am. If there is a minor lift in oil prices, stocks will probably be able to look the other way.
Immediate resistance for the Nasdaq is 2077-2088; resistance is especially thick at 2083-2085.04 and unless there is another drop in oil after the inventory numbers, the 2077-2088 area looks like a likely spot for a stall short-term as the markets pause to contemplate the FOMC meeting announcement on Thursday.
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq was oversold and the bounce was helped by a sharp drop in crude futures. I can't call the lift anything other than an oversold bounce right now. If there is going to be a strong move up, then buyers have to show their eagerness to be owners by being aggressive and not allowing the Nasdaq to undercut immediate support at 2068.11-2057.48. I think 4 minutes of prints under 2057.48 would increase the chances for a drift lower in search of aggressive buyers (not expected), a move back below 2052 would be an invitation for a trip to revisit 2047-2027.
In the decline last week and Monday, the S&P 500 did not move down as much as the Nasdaq because the S&P 500 was bolstered by energy related shares. These same energy related companies can prevent the S&P 500 from fully participating (lagging the Nasdaq) on the upside if there is another drop in oil futures after the inventory numbers.
Immediate Intraday Resistances:
• Nasdaq: 2047-2064.88, then 2077-2088; resistance is thick at 2083-2085.04. Next resistance is 2095-2106.57. Resistance is stacked and runs 2106.19-2116.75.
• S&P 500 resistance is 1206.95-1208.84, then 1211-1216.43.
• Nasdaq immediate support is 2068.11-2057.48. Next meaningful support is 2047-2027.
• S&P 500 support is 1200-1195, then 1194-1188.30.
Cherney is president of Cherney Market Analysis