What The Fearless Forecasters See

Get used to single-digit returns, say the 67 stock market strategists we polled for their 2005 market outlook. They anticipate a gain of 6.8% for the Dow Jones industrial average in 2005 and 7% for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Investing abroad gained favor, with the consensus asset allocation for international stocks jumping to 18%, up from 14% last year. Strategists are listed according to their year-end Dow forecasts, from the most bullish to the most bearish.

SLIDE SHOW: Consensus Asset Allocations, And More ... >

  FEARLESS FORECASTERS
FORECASTER DOW JONES S&P 500 NASDAQ COMPOSITE RUSSELL 2000 ASSET ALLOCATIONS* FAVORITE SECTOR FAVORITE STOCK TREASURY YIELD
Linked to forecaster's comments Mid- year Year- end Mid- year Year- end Mid- year Year- end Mid- year Year- end U.S. stocks % Intl. stocks % U.S. bonds % Cash %   Company name Mid- year Year- end

Peter Trapp

Bifrost Partners

11750 12750 1400 1500 1900 2000 700 800 40 40 0 10 Technology Scor 6 6

Arvind Sachdeva

Victory Capital Mgmt.

10850 12500   1425   2600   790 62 0 34 4 Industrial Cyclicals Newmont Mining 4.85 5.25

Elaine Garzarelli

Garzarelli Capital

  12400   1420         100 0 0 0 Industrial Cyclicals Merrill Lynch   4.5

Sam Stovall

Standard & Poor's

11795 12235 1255 1300 2245 2360     45 15 25 15 Financials RPM Int'l 4.6 5

Mark Elenowitz

TriPoint Capital Advisors

11500 12000 1295 1350 2300 2400 680 710 65 20 10 5 Health Care AXM Pharma 4.75 5

Larry Smith

Third Wave Global Investors

11250 12000 1250 1350 2300 2500 660 725 50 25 15 0 Technology   5 4.75

John J. Regan

Americal Investment Strategies

11009 11901 1253 1383 2345 2760 702 767 70 10 0 5 Technology Dell 4.85 5.4

George Jacobsen

Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen

11350 11800 1220 1275 2300 2400 660 700 80 0 10 10 Industrial Cyclicals DeVry 5.25 5.75

Liz Ann Sonders

Charles Schwab

12500 11800 1400 1320 2425 2275 725 680 50 20 25 5 Energy Cal Dive International 5 5.8

John Clarke

H.C. Wainwright

11235 11796 1248 1311 2253 2388 672 705 40 25 15 10 Technology Multiband 3.97 4.29

Young Chin

Gartmore Global Investments

11194 11754 1221 1246 2169 2191 646 665 30 40 5   Energy Starwood Hotels & Resorts  

Tobias Levkovich

Citigroup Smith Barney

  11700   1225         60 0 35 5 Health Care Carnival Cruise Lines 4.6 4.75

Edward Yardeni

Oak Associates

11000 11700 1250 1300 2300 2400 690 750 65 15 10 5 Technology eBay 4.2 4.5

Gary Tapp

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

11010 11680 1223 1273 2206 2280 656 688 65 20 10 0 Industrial Cyclicals Aetna 4.6 5

Arthur Hogan

Jefferies

11235 11663 1250 1297 2233 2353 665 690 60 10 20 10 Technology Lions Gate Enterainment 4.53 4.9

Joseph Battipaglia

Ryan Beck

11100 11600 1250 1300     640 660 72 8 5 0 Industrial Cyclicals Books-A-Million 4.5 5.25

Stuart T. Freeman

A.G. Edwards & Sons

11400 11600 1270 1300     670 682 65 10 20 5 Consumer Staples Citigroup 4.75 5

Tim Leach

US Trust

11000 11600 1240 1285 2200 2250 660 680 44 11 20 0 Energy   4.75 5.25

James Wong

Payden & Rygel Investment Mgmt.

11100 11600 1290 1340 2350 2500 680 720 30 20 20 10 Energy Ryland Group 4.5 5

Robert Morris

Lord, Abbett

11000 11550 1250 1301 2200 2301 660 695 75 15 10 0 Industrial Cyclicals Telekom Austria 4.5 4.5

Allan Roness

ASR Corporate Consultants

11150 11505 1220 1255 2300 2450 670 700 60 15 0 15 Technology Encore Acquisition 4.6 4.85

Richard Dickson

Lowry's Reports

11500 11500 1300 1300 2435 2100 675 605 70 30 0 0 Industrial Cyclicals Wyeth  

Gail Dudack

Sungard Institutional Brokerage

11550 11500 1325 1290 2400 2280     60 0 20 20 Energy   4.4 4.9

Vince Gallagher

Needham

11180 11500 1150 1305 2200 2350 680 710 70 10 0 20 Services Bright Horizons Family Solutions 4.75 5.25

Hugh Johnson

First Albany Capital

10940 11500 1230 1300 2180 2300 650 680 100 0 0 0 Consumer Staples Walt Disney 4.1 4.5

David Katz

Matrix Asset Advisors

11260 11500 1267 1295 2360 2400 672 685 70 5 15 10 Technology Citigroup 5.2 5.5

Jeffrey Kleintop

PNC Advisors

11100 11500 1250 1300 2230 2320 660 685 57 13 25 5 Industrial Cyclicals Wellpoint Health Networks 4.8 5

James Paulsen

Wells Capital Management

12300 11500 1375 1325 2500 2350 730 690 40 30 20 0 Technology   5.5 6

Tobin Smith

ChangeWave Research

11200 11500 1260 1280 2340 2380   673 50 30 0 0 Energy Silicon Image 4.9 5.1

Roger DeBard

iGlobal Capital

11600 11490 1250 1224 2275 2223 670 663 40 5 15 35 Financials Merrill Lynch 4.45 4.65

Charles Mayer

Pioneer Investments

10725 11470 1210 1270 2130 2205 680 707 65 10 20 5 Industrial Cyclicals   4.35 4.7

Charlie Crane

Scotsman Capital Management

11200 11450 1260 1280 2175 2250 635 650 90 0 0 10 Consumer Staples Chubb 4.5 4.35

Ivan Gefen

vFinance

11000 11450 1240 1285 2210 2300 650 680 35 20 20 15 Services   4.35 4.5

Harvey Hirschhorn

Bank of America Investment Strategies Group

11000 11350 1260 1300 2275 2350 680 700 53 11 29 3 Industrial Cyclicals   5.15 5.25

Richard Sichel

The Philadelphia Trust Co.

11019 11350 1227 1264 2266 2311     65 0 35 0 Financials Alliant Techsystems 4.5 4.85

Clare Zempel

Zempel Strategic

10925 11350 1200 1300 2175 2275 675 700 50 20 20 10 Health Care Pfizer 4.75 5.5

Jason Trennert

ISI Group

11000 11300 1300 1350 2300 2450 675 710 65 10 10 15 Technology Charles Schwab 4.5 4.5

Christopher Conkey

Evergreen Investment Mgmt.

11000 11250 1250 1275 2200 2250 650 675 50 25 20 5   Asta Funding  

Richard Driehaus

Driehaus Capital Mgmt.

10900 11250 1240 1280 2150 2200 660 700 50 30 0 10 Energy Digital Angel 4.65 4.75

John Leo

Northern Trust Investments

11025 11250 1240 1260 2175 2175 630 660 60 20 13 7 Industrial Cyclicals Caterpillar 4.75 4.5

Barry Hyman

Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum

11000 11200 1250 1270 2200 2300 660 680 70 0 15 15 Industrial Cyclicals Biogen IDEC 5 5.5

Rod Smyth

Wachovia Securities

11000 11200 1250 1270     660 680 40 25 25 10 Energy   4.5 4.75

Mark Jordahl

U.S. Bancorp Asset Mgmt.

10800 11175 1215 1260 2175 2250 645 660 48 18 28 0 Technology Intel 4.5 4.75

Jack Ablin

Harris Private Bank

11384 11172 1280 1256 2298 2255 688 675 40 50 0 0 Health Care   5.6 6.15

Arnim Holzer

Deutsche Asset Mgmt.

10800 11145 1215 1275 2150 2200 650 660 55 15 20 0 Energy   4.6 5

Alison Deans

Lehman Brothers

  11100   1300       711 26 25 18 0 Energy     5

Asher Plaut

Brill Securities

10950 11100 1470 1510 2250 2410 650 675 70 15 10 5 Health Care Natus Medical 5 5.1

Vincent Sbarra

HPC Capital Mgmt.

10850 11050 1216 1252 2150 2232 583 590 40 5 5 15 Technology Perma-Fix Environmental Services 4.4 4.65

Lawrence G. McMillan

McMillan Analysis

13200 11040 1320 1250 2650 2180 770 655 60 20 10 10 Energy Cameco 5 4.4

Dorsey Farr

Wilmington Trust

11035 11035 1240 1240 2190 2190 655 655 26 18 20 0     4.75 5

Subodh Kumar

CIBC World Markets

11500 11000 1275 1250 2300 2500 625 650 36 31 17 5 Technology Cisco 4.75 5

Tom McManus

Banc of America Securities

10700 11000 1200 1200 2250 2200 650 600 55 0 10 25 Energy Apache 5 5.5

Jim Huguet

Great Companies

10750 10955 1205 1245 2355 2450 683 704 45 35 20 0 Financials American International Group 5.1 5.25

Warren Bagatelle

Loeb Partners

10750 10950 1250 1350 2200 2300 640 650 65 0 10 7 Health Care Pfizer 4.3 4.2

Wendell Perkins

Johnson Asset Mgmt.

10700 10950 1190 1225 2110 2170 634 639 30 40 10 10 Health Care Multimedia Games 4.6 5

C. Kim Goodwin

State Street Research

10500 10900 1200 1250 2150 2210 613 625 40 25 30 5 Consumer Staples Equity Office Properties Trust 4.8 5

William Greiner

UMB Investment Advisors

10800 10900 1250 1265 2200 2250 650 655 50 15 30 5 Industrial Cyclicals Cintas 4.8 4

Sean Taylor

GAM

10100 10750 1050 1250 1850 2300 560 640 25 75 0 0 Services WebZen 4.8 5.4

Jeffrey Knight

Putnam Investments

11200 10640 1235 1160 2160 2055 680 642 30 25 15 0 Energy   4.6 4

Robert H. Stovall

Wood Asset Management

10965 10625 1225 1365 2255 2175 637 628 40 20 15 10 Energy Tiffany  

Daniel Dektar

Smith Breeden Associates

10500 10600 1185 1195 2100 2000 640 645 15 25 15 15     4.6 4.8

David M. Joy

American Express Financial Advisors

10500 10150 1175 1150 2150 2035 625 610 30 40 20 10 Energy   4.75 5.35

Joseph Liro

Stone & McCarthy Research Associates

9650 10100   1150   2250   720 40 25 20 15 Technology Intel  

Barry Ritholtz

Maxim Group

11707 9703 1324 950 2620 1825 765 606 50 25 15 5 Financials Interoil 4.95 5.5

Michael Painchaud

Market Profile Theorems

9200 8800 1035 990 1710 1620 490 450 30 10 10 30 Utilities IMAX 4.6 4.95

Bernie Schaeffer

Schaeffer's Investment Research

9000 8000 950 825 1950 1600 575 550 30 15 15 20 Energy XM Satellite Radio Holdings 4 3.75

ML Global Strategy & Economics

Merrill Lynch

      1205         45 0 45 10 Utilities   3.6 3.85

Data compiled by Brian Hindo, Anne Tergesen, and Suzanne Woolley

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