Trend Remains Positive
By Paul Cherney
This is option expiration week and there should be some sort of profit-taking, even if it only lasts a day. Tuesday, Nov. 16, would be a prime time for prices to move a little lower, but if the CBOE volatility index, or VXO, starts to head lower and undercuts the 13.56 level, I think there could be a panicked short-covering (related to the Friday expiration) in place.
The technical condition of the market has not really changed: the trend for prices remains positive. A retracement would be natural at any time. End-of-day momentum measures suggest that any short-term price weakness should attract buyers, not sellers, so downside risk should be limited. Any price weakness would not change my expectations that a retracement should be limited in depth and duration.
The Nasdaq has resistance at 2,049-2,094; resistance thickens at 2,079-2,094. The next resistance is 2,108-2,153.83.
Immediate intraday Nasdaq support is 2,068-2,025 with thick intraday support at 2,068-2,056. Another layer of strong support exists at 2,036-2,027.69. Next intraday support is 2,020.67-2,002.
S&P 500 intraday support is 1,177-1,160; support is thick at 1,170-1,160. The next layer of organized intraday support is 1,147-1,138.50.
The S&P 500 has thick resistance at 1,185-1,226.
We are at the beginning of what has been historically, on average, the three best performing months of the year: November through January.
Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's