Bulls, Bears in Balance
By Paul Cherney
Technical measures based on daily price bars remain positive, but right now there is a balance between buyers and sellers that might keep prices moving mostly sideways, maybe even until the close of trading Tuesday, Nov. 2 -- Election Day.
Here are short-term important intraday support levels: Nasdaq, 1,960-1,954.29; S&P 500, 1,120.96-1,117.14. This remains my view: I do not expect these prices to be undercut, but if the Nasdaq 1,954.29 or S&P 500 1,117.14 levels are undercut for more than four minutes inside the trading day, that would increase the chances for weaker prices, and a possible test of the Nasdaq 1,937-1,926 area; for the S&P 500, a test of the 1,111-1,108 zone would be possible.
Immediate supports are stacked and a dramatic decline would probably require a headline everyone recognizes as bearish.
Chart support for the Nasdaq is 1,957-1,934. This chart support along with the overlap of the intraday support mentioned above makes a focus of short-term support at 1,957-1,954.29. Next support is 1,927.51-1,914, then 1,916-1,906.
Chart support for the S&P 500 is 1,119-1,111; the 1,119-1,117 area remains a focus of support. Next organized support below 1,111 is stacked at 1,108-1,098.
There is a shelf of resistance for the Nasdaq right at current prices: 1,972-2,006.58. This is all part of the 1,960-2,055 band of resistance. Inside this 1,972-2,006 layer is especially thick resistance at 1,985-2,000.
The S&P 500 has resistance at 1,127-1,142.05, with thick resistance at 1,132-1,142.05 (a likely stall zone). Next resistance is 1,147-1,163.23; there is a focus of resistance at 1,147-1,150.57.
At a minimum, the CBOE volatility index, or VXO, is probably going to have to undercut 15.70 (chart read) to suggest aggressive buying.
Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's