Investors expecting Bush reelection

Are markets worldwide betting on a Bush victory this November? S&P MarketScope reports that the latest Merrill Lynch survey of global fund managers shows that 66% expect President Bush will be reelected in November. That’s quite a reversal from August, when a majority thought Kerry would beat Bush in November. According to MarketScope, the shift in sentiment shows a positive impact for Bush from the Republican convention. Bush is also faring better on the political futures market, notes MarketScope, with Dubya’s reelection contract on Intrade now up to almost 64 cents on a dollar payout, vs. a contract low of 49 cents before the GOP convention. The Kerry-win contract has fallen to less than 38 cents from 50 cents in early August.

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