More Weakness is Likely
By Paul Cherney
Short-term concerns about additional downside for the S&P 500 index would increase with a close below 1095. But the 50% retracement of the July 26 low to the July 30 high is 1091, and if there is a close under that level, then the odds start to increase for additional S&P 500 weakness.
The NASDAQ has closed below the 1862 level and the short-term odds have increased that there will be more price weakness. The NASDAQ now has immediate downside risk for a test of the most immediate shelf of short-term support: 1854-1829, inside this is a focus 1842-1832. If prices start to print below last Monday's low print, 1829.06, some bears might book profits and provide an intraday rebound, but right now, the technical look for the NASDAQ is negative.
Observations based on intraday charts: The S&P 500 is stronger technically than the NASDAQ. Immediate intraday support for the S&P 500 is 1103-1095.82. S&P 500 1095.47 is like a line of death in the 10-minute charts. The first prints near this level (if there are prints near this level) will probably attract some buyers, bears covering shorts. But then, if there is another move down through this level, I would expect a test of 1090-1078 with a focus of support 1086-1082.
NASDAQ support under 1829.06 starts 1815-1792.
Immediate resistance for the S&P 500 is 1103-1109.30, 1114-1119.60, stacked and overlapped at 1118.56-1122.37.
Immediate intraday resistance for the NASDAQ is 1874-1880.81 then a small shelf 1886-1896.31. Well-defined resistance does not come until 1903-1933 with a focus 1909-1918.
Any time resistances are exceeded, they must be treated as supports until proven otherwise. Any time supports are undercut, they must be treated as resistance until proven otherwise.
Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's