Treasuries End Slightly Lower

Supply and curve trades were the main factors, while the CPI showed continued tame inflation

Treasuries opened higher in price, moved lower, and then bounced back, as supply and curve trades were the main factors. The consumer price index showed continued tame inflation.

The 10-year note tested new highs. The approach of the 3.625% 10-year yield had many expecting convexity hedging (5.5% mortgages getting close to being refinanced). But this failed to surface, so prices stalled amid profit taking. Rate lock sales vs. more corporate supply, in addition to balanced fund asset reallocations, pushed Treasuries lower.

The "last straw" was the PPI announcement, with some Wall Street analysts expecting a jump based on the surge February's import prices. Short covering moved prices back to neutral. The price of the benchmark 10-year note finished lower, pushing the yield up to 3.70%.

From Informa Global Markets

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