Online Extra: BW/Harris Poll: Investing In 2004

Methodology: This survey was conducted by telephone within the United States between December 2 to December 8, 2003 among a nationwide cross section of 610 adults who are 18 or older (Sampling error +/- 4.0). Among them 312 respondents were "stock investors" (Sampling error +/- 5.5). An asterisk (*) signifies a value of less than one-half percent. A dash represents a value of zero.
Some questions were asked of all respondents, and others were asked only of stock investors. For some of the questions that were asked of all respondents, it is possible to break out the answers of the subset who own stock. Questions labeled "Base: All Respondents" represent the answers of all 610 adults polled. Questions labeled "Base: Stock Investors" represent answers only of the 312 who said that they own stock.
If you had to choose the ONE investment that you think would be the best to make right now, which would it be?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Real estate 25 33 30 30 28 39 53 46
Mutual funds 24 21 18 20 21 13 9 10
Bank or savings & loan deposits 8 9 11 12 14 7 6 8
Common stock 10 12 13 13 8 7 5 9
Money-market funds 6 6 7 7 8 5 4 3
Gold or other precious metals 7 4 4 5 4 5 5 3
Government bonds 9 5 5 5 5 8 6 7
Corporate bonds 2 4 3 2 1 3 2 1
I don't save or invest at all (v) 3 1 3 1 3 4 2 4
Not sure (v) 6 5 6 4 7 9 7 9
Decline to answer (v) - - - - * * * *
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2002 2003
Real estate 55 46
Mutual funds 12 17
Bank or savings & loan deposits 3 4
Common stock 7 14
Money-market funds 5 5
Gold or other precious metals 5 4
Government bonds 5 4
Corporate bonds 3 1
I don't save or invest at all (v) 1 2
Not sure (v) 5 2
Decline to answer (v) - -
Thinking about your household's total assets including real estate, stocks including stock mutual funds, bonds including bond mutual funds, savings instruments, and cash, does your household own any of the following?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS Yes No Not sure (v) Decline to Answer (v)
Real estate
1999 62 34 2 2
2000 59 32 1 8
2001 60 37 3 -
2002 62 36 1 1
2003 63 35 2 1
Stocks including stock mutual funds
1999 50 46 2 2
2000 47 42 2 9
2001 47 49 3 *
2002 47 50 2 1
2003 47 49 2 1
Bonds including bond mutual funds
1999 28 67 3 2
2000 27 61 4 9
2001 26 69 4 *
2002 28 68 3 1
2003 29 65 4 2
Savings instruments and cash
1999 74 23 1 2
2000 67 21 2 10
2001 72 25 2 *
2002 69 29 1 1
2003 67 29 3 2
Some other asset
1999 22 74 2 2
2000 34 55 2 10
2001 34 62 4 1
2002 34 62 3 1
2003 34 61 4 1
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS Yes No Not sure (v) Decline to Answer (v)
Real estate
2002 79 21 1 -
2003 78 22 - -
Stocks including stock mutual funds
2002 100 - - -
2003 100 - - -
Bonds including bond mutual funds
2002 46 51 4 -
2003 51 46 3 -
Savings instruments and cash
2002 89 11 1 -
2003 88 11 1 *
Some other asset
2002 44 54 2 *
2003 43 54 3 *
Have you bought common stock or shares in a stock mutual fund WITHIN THE PAST YEAR?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Have bought 57 59 53 50 48
Have not bought 42 39 46 49 48
Not sure (v) 1 1 1 1 4
Decline to answer (v) * 1 * - -
Over the next six months, do you think you will probably invest a lot more in STOCKS, invest somewhat more in STOCKS, reduce your investment in STOCKS somewhat, or reduce your investments a lot?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2003
Invest a lot more 5
Invest somewhat more 26
Reduce somewhat 16
Reduce a lot 11
Stay the same (v) 34
I don't save or invest at all (v) 4
Not sure (v) 4
Decline to answer (v) -
Over the next six months, do you think you will probably invest a lot more in STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS, invest somewhat more in STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS, reduce your investment in STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS somewhat, or reduce your investments a lot?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2003
Invest a lot more 5
Invest somewhat more 23
Reduce somewhat 19
Reduce a lot 13
Stay the same (v) 32
I don't save or invest at all (v) 3
Not sure (v) 5
Decline to answer (v) -
Over the next year, do you think stocks will go up, stay about the same, or go down?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Go up 39 39 37 52 33 52 41 54
Stay about the same 36 38 34 20 26 25 27 24
Go down 19 16 21 17 23 14 20 11
Not sure (v) 6 7 8 10 18 9 12 12
Decline to answer (v) - - - - 1 * * -
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2002 2003
Go up 47 67
Stay about the same 28 21
Go down 16 6
Not sure (v) 8 6
Decline to answer (v) * -
Over the next 12 months, how would you rate the chance of another big crash in the stock market -- very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Very likely 12 13 14 15 13 14 17 12
Somewhat likely 35 43 41 37 37 38 39 34
Not very likely 35 31 29 33 35 32 28 37
Not likely at all 15 10 11 11 7 11 9 12
Not sure (v) 3 3 4 4 7 5 6 5
Decline to answer (v) - - - - 1 * * -
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2002 2003
Very likely 12 5
Somewhat likely 39 27
Not very likely 37 52
Not likely at all 8 10
Not sure (v) 3 5
Decline to answer (v) * -
In the long run, what sort of total returns (capital gains plus dividends) do you expect the stock market to produce for you -- below 5% a year, 5% to below 10% a year, 10% to below 12% a year, 12% to below 15% a year, or 15 % or higher a year?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Below 5% a year 8 4 9 7 7 12 20 15
5% to below 10% a year 36 27 26 30 33 42 42 46
10% to below 12% a year 29 30 29 27 25 24 18 19
12% to below 15% a year 13 19 18 14 12 9 6 7
15% or higher a year 9 14 17 13 12 7 6 7
Not sure (v) 5 5 2 8 10 7 9 5
Decline to answer (v) - - - 2 1 * * -
How confident are you that the stocks or mutual funds you pick will beat the market averages Ð very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident, or not at all confident?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2000 2001 2002 2003
Very confident 17 14 10 15
Somewhat confident 62 62 54 60
Not very confident 12 14 24 16
Not at all confident 3 5 8 5
Not sure (v) 5 4 4 4
Decline to answer (v) 1 * - -
Overall, how would you describe the stock market's valuation -- very overpriced, somewhat overpriced, fairly valued, somewhat cheap, or very cheap?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Very overpriced 12 11 4 8 8
Somewhat overpriced 46 40 29 28 30
Fairly valued 31 28 39 37 40
Somewhat cheap 4 9 17 15 11
Very cheap * 1 3 4 4
Not sure (v) 6 11 8 9 7
Decline to answer (v) 1 * * * -
Overall, how would you describe the valuation of international stocks -- very overpriced, somewhat overpriced, fairly valued, somewhat cheap, or very cheap?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Very overpriced 6 7 5 5 5
Somewhat overpriced 22 23 18 22 29
Fairly valued 19 17 21 18 20
Somewhat cheap 11 10 8 10 6
Very cheap 1 2 2 2 1
Not sure (v) 39 41 46 41 38
Decline to answer (v) 2 * 1 1 *
Overall, how would you describe the valuation of technology stocks -- very overpriced, somewhat overpriced, fairly valued, somewhat cheap, or very cheap?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2000 2001 2002 2003
Very overpriced 18 15 14 13
Somewhat overpriced 35 31 32 30
Fairly valued 19 22 22 29
Somewhat cheap 6 17 13 11
Very cheap 1 4 5 4
Not sure (v) 21 11 14 13
Decline to answer (v) * * * -
Do you believe that next year, the stock market will be -- less volatile, about as volatile as this year, or more volatile?
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Less volatile 16 11 24 42 27 34
About as volatile as this year 56 54 43 40 49 49
More volatile 26 28 24 12 19 14
Not sure (v) 2 7 9 6 5 4
Decline to answer (v) - * 1 * * -
How do you think terrorism and the war against it will affect the stock market over the next 12 months -- very positively, somewhat positively, somewhat negatively, very negatively, or will it have no effect at all?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 2001 2002 2003
Very positively 11 14 12
Somewhat positively 28 20 20
Somewhat negatively 32 38 30
Very negatively 8 12 13
No effect at all 14 10 18
Not sure (v) 7 6 7
Decline to answer (v) * * -
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2002 2003
Very positively 10 3
Somewhat positively 20 21
Somewhat negatively 43 34
Very negatively 13 12
No effect at all 10 22
Not sure (v) 4 8
Decline to answer (v) * -
Some people say that small investors can do as well as big investors in the stock market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? Do you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 2002 2003
Agree strongly 18 16
Agree somewhat 34 33
Neither agree nor disagree (v) 3 4
Disagree somewhat 25 24
Disagree strongly 16 19
Not sure (v) 4 3
Decline to answer (v) 1 -
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2002 2003
Agree strongly 17 11
Agree somewhat 37 33
Neither agree nor disagree (v) 3 4
Disagree somewhat 28 29
Disagree strongly 14 21
Not sure (v) 2 2
Decline to answer (v) * -
What do you think will happen to the INFLATION RATE in the next 12 months? Will it go up, stay the same or go down?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 2003
Will go up 50
Will stay the same 36
Will go down 11
Not sure (v.) 3
Decline to answer (v.) -
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2003
Will go up 55
Will stay the same 34
Will go down 9
Not sure (v.) 2
Decline to answer (v.) -
What do you think will happen to INTEREST RATES in the next 12 months? Will they go up, stay the same or go down?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 2003
Will go up 58
Will stay the same 30
Will go down 10
Not sure (v.) 2
Decline to answer (v.) *
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2003
Will go up 63
Will stay the same 26
Will go down 10
Not sure (v.) 2
Decline to answer (v.) -
What do you think will happen to the ECONOMY in the next 12 months? Will it grow faster than in the past 12 months, will it grow at about the same rate or slower?
BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 2003
Will grow faster 31
Will grow at the same rate 46
Will grow slower 21
Not sure (v.) 3
Decline to answer (v.) -
BASE: STOCK INVESTORS 2003
Will grow faster 36
Will grow at the same rate 47
Will grow slower 15
Not sure (v.) 2
Decline to answer (v.) -
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