2004: The Economy To Come

We asked 60 business economists for their views of the future, including some thoughts on trends, such as job and income growth, not included here in BusinessWeek's annual published survey table. The survey is organized, top to bottom, by the economists' forecasts for real GDP growth for all of 2004. To help make sense of the numbers, we've compiled some highlights of what the experts expect.

Economist Firm

(Linked to Comments)

Real GDP

Quarterly % Chg.

2004 annual rate

Yrly. % Chg.

2003 Q4 to 2004 Q4

2004 Q4 Levels (%)

Mo. of 1st Fed Rate Hike
I II III IV Real GDP

Operating Profits

$million

CPI Jobless Rate 10-yr. Treas. Yield Federal Funds Rate
Wayne Angell Angell Economics 5.8 6.4 5.7 6.2 6.0 22.5 2.1 5.8 4.50 1.50 Aug 04
Chris Low FTN Financial 5.0 6.0 5.0 5.2 5.4 15.0 1.5 5.0 4.60 1.00 Feb 05
Ian Shepherdson High Frequency Economics 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 40.0 2.0 5.2 5.50 2.50 May 04
David Littmann Comerica Bank 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.5 4.7 13.2 2.6 5.7 5.50 1.70 May 04
John Silvia/Mark Vitner Wachovia 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.7 11.6 2.8 5.5 5.30 1.75 May 04
Sung won Sohn Wells Fargo Bank 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.7 8.5 1.5 5.2 5.75 1.25 Dec 04
Michael Englund Action Economics 5.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.6 9.5 1.6 5.9 5.10 1.50 Jun 04
James Smith Society of Industrial and Office Realtors 5.3 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.6 17.6 1.0 4.8 4.45 2.15 Mar 04
Gary Thayer A.G. Edwards 5.5 4.2 5.0 3.6 4.6 10.8 2.3 5.4 5.10 1.60 May 04
Nariman Behravesh Global Insight 4.4 4.5 5.0 4.3 4.5 9.6 1.3 5.5 5.20 1.69 Jun 04
Richard Berner/David Greenlaw Morgan Stanley 4.2 4.4 4.6 5.0 4.5 8.6 1.6 5.4 5.18 1.50 Nov. 04
David Lereah National Association of Realtors 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.5 11.5 1.4 5.6 4.90 1.50 Jun 04
Jim Meil/Arun Raha Eaton Corporation 4.4 4.6 4.9 3.9 4.5 15.8 2.4 5.4 4.40 1.70 Jul 04
Michael Moran Daiwa Securities America 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.8 4.5 15.0 1.3 5.7 5.10 1.50 Nov 04
Constantine Soras Andrew Alexander Wise & Co. 4.7 5.0 3.9 4.5 4.5 NA 2.2 5.7 5.05 2.55 May 04
Joel Prakken/Chris Varvares Macroeconomic Advisers 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.5 8.8 1.2 5.5 4.70 1.00 Jan 05
james c. cooper/kathleen madigan BusinessWeek 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.4 15.0 1.6 5.3 5.10 1.75 Aug 04
Richard Dekaser National City 4.7 4.0 5.0 4.1 4.4 6.0 2.1 5.6 5.15 2.31 May 04
Stephen Gallagher SG CIB 5.0 5.0 3.8 3.7 4.4 13.5 2.0 5.6 5.25 1.75 Jun 04
Ken Mayland ClearView Economics 4.8 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.4 14.3 2.5 5.6 4.96 2.03 Aug 04
Lynn Reaser Banc of America Capital Management 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.3 10.7 1.9 5.5 5.25 1.68 Jun 04
Steven Ricchiuto ABN AMRO 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.7 1.6 5.8 5.30 1.80 Jun 04
John Ryding Bear Stearns 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 12.0 2.0 5.5 5.63 3.00 Mar 04
Allen Sinai Decision Economics 4.7 4.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 12.5 2.3 5.5 5.31 1.63 Jun 04
David Berson Fannie Mae 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 1.4 5.6 5.00 1.92 Jun 04
Robert McGee U.S. Trust 4.2 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.2 8.7 1.6 5.6 4.90 1.93 Jun 04
Mark Lieberman Washington Mutual 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.8 4.1 14.1 1.8 5.8 5.08 1.25 May 04
John Lonski Moody's Investors Service 3.5 3.8 4.8 4.2 4.1 12.0 2.9 5.6 5.30 2.10 Mar 04
Martin Regalia U.S. Chamber of Commerce 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.6 4.1 NA 2.0 5.4 5.30 1.50 Nov 04
Richard Rippe Prudential Equity Group 5.1 4.1 3.5 3.5 4.1 10.5 1.9 5.6 5.00 1.80 Jun 04
Neal Soss CSFB 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.8 4.1 15.0 1.5 6.0 4.75 1.00 NA
Michael Carey Credit Lyonnais 4.5 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 11.0 1.9 5.7 5.20 1.50 Aug 04
Robert Gay Commerzbank Securities 4.7 4.3 3.6 3.3 4.0 9.6 1.7 5.8 4.80 1.75 May 04
Daniel Laufenberg American Express Financial Advisors 4.4 3.9 4.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 2.6 5.5 5.00 2.20 Mar 04
Joseph Liro Stone & McCarthy Research Associates 4.2 4.5 3.5 4.1 4.0 12.5 2.6 5.6 4.95 1.50 Aug 04
Tim O'Neill BMO Financial Group and Harris Bank 4.2 4.2 3.8 3.8 4.0 10.0 1.4 5.6 5.20 2.20 May 04
Robert Schnorbus J.D. Power & Associates 3.7 3.9 4.2 3.7 4.0 NA 1.9 5.7 5.10 2.00 Jun 04
David Seiders National Association of Home Builders 4.5 4.0 3.8 3.7 4.0 9.2 1.6 5.7 5.00 1.20 Nov 04
Donald Straszheim Straszheim Global Advisors 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 10.0 2.0 6.1 5.50 2.50 Jan 04
David Wyss Standard & Poor's 3.9 4.5 4.2 3.5 4.0 6.1 1.4 5.5 5.00 1.40 Jun 04
Diane Swonk Bank One 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 31.0 1.7 5.8 5.40 1.50 Jun 04
Stuart Hoffman PNC Financial Services Group 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.8 11.4 2.3 5.7 5.05 1.65 Jun 04
David Resler Nomura Securities International 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 7.5 2.4 5.5 4.95 1.00 Dec 04
Robert Shrouds DuPont 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.8 10.0 2.2 5.6 5.25 2.25 Jun 04
Henry Willmore Barclays Capital 3.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 12.0 1.8 5.7 5.60 1.25 Nov 04
Nicholas Perna Perna Associates 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 8.4 2.6 5.5 5.05 2.18 May 04
Mark Zandi Economy.com 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.7 10.5 1.5 6.0 5.30 2.00 Jun 04
Ethan Harris Lehman Brothers 3.5 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.6 17.0 1.0 5.9 4.80 1.00 Jan 05
Maury Harris UBS 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.6 14.3 2.0 5.7 4.90 1.50 Aug 04
Kurt Karl Swiss Re 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.6 9.5 1.1 5.6 5.00 1.80 Jul 04
Joel Naroff Naroff Economic Advisors 4.2 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.6 16.5 2.2 5.1 5.55 2.60 May 04
Keith Hembre U.S. Bancorp Asset Management 4.1 4.2 2.9 2.7 3.5 6.0 1.3 5.8 4.50 1.25 Dec 04
Gail Fosler The Conference Board 4.5 5.5 4.6 3.4 3.4 Ð5.3 2.3 5.7 5.50 2.00 Mar 04
Gene Huang FedEx 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.4 8.8 2.6 5.6 5.00 1.80 Jun 04
William Dunkelberg Nat. Fed. of Ind. Business 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.3 26.0 1.8 5.7 5.50 2.00 Mar 04
Richard YamaroneArgus Research 2.9 3.1 4.2 3.1 3.3 20.0 3.3 5.7 5.30 1.00 Mar 05
John Pope Investment Economics 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 3.0 Ð1.0 1.9 5.9 4.80 1.09 Sep 04
Bill Dudley Goldman Sachs 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.9 6.5 1.1 6.1 3.50 1.00 Jun 05
Lynn Michaelis Weyerhaeuser 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.9 12.5 1.9 5.8 4.70 1.75 Mar 04
Ian Morris HSBC 3.4 3.4 2.4 2.4 2.9 1.0 1.0 6.2 3.80 1.00 Jul 05
CONSENSUS 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 4.1% 11.7% 1.9% 5.6% 5.0% 1.7%

* Before-Tax Corporate Profits with IVA and CCA (NIPA BASIS)

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