2004: How The Pros See It

The predictions of the 66 stock market strategists we polled foretell a continuation of the bull market in 2004. But the gains are anticipated to be far more modest in the year ahead. On average, Wall Street's seers expect the Dow to rise just 6.2% for the year. Strategists are listed below in descending order, from the most bullish to the most bearish for the Dow at yearend.

Forecaster Firm

(Link to Comments)

Dow Jones Ind. Avg. S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Russell 2000

Asset Allocation

Favorite Stock Sector Favorite Stock
Midyear Yearend Yearend Yearend Yearend US Stocks US Bonds Intl. Stocks Cash
Elaine Garzarelli Garzarelli Capital 11850 1275 100% 0% 0% 0% Ind. Cyclicals Home Depot
John J. Regan Americal Investment Strategies 10775 11830 1308 2570 696 70 0 10 5 Technology Intel
Edward Yardeni Prudential Equity Group 11000 11700 1300 2200 675 60 10 20 10 Cons. durables Phelps Dodge
Asher Plaut Brill Securities 10750 11500 1210 2200 675 75 0 10 15 Technology 21st Cent. Hld.
Allan S. Roness ASR Corporate Consultants 10750 11500 1200 2350 615 80 0 10 10 Health Care Pathmark
Tobin Smith ChangeWave Research 10500 11500 1200 2350 675 65 0 25 0 Technology Unova
J. Thomas Madden Federated Investors 12000 11500 1200 2300 640 45 33 19 0 Utilities (telecom) Vodafone
Arthur R. Hogan Jefferies & Co. 10753 11453 1240 2353 621 60 20 10 10 Health Care Vail Resorts
Joseph Liro Stone & McCarthy Research Assoc. 11100 11425 1250 2250 640 55 25 10 10 Ind. Cyclicals Microsoft
Keith Wirtz Fifth Third Bank 11100 11400 1300 2400 640 60 20 10 10 Technology EMC
David A. Katz Matrix Asset Advisors 10670 11260 1217 2298 608 70 15 5 10 Health Care Baxter Intl.
Jon Brorson Neuberger Berman 10550 11200 1250 2365 665 60 10 20 5 Ind. Cyclicals Newmont Min.
Liz Ann Sonders Charles Schwab 11500 11200 1220 2400 600 Ind. Cyclicals Aspect Comm.
Clare W. Zempel Zempel Economics & Investment Strategies 10675 11150 1200 2225 625 50 15 25 10 Health Care Pfizer
Sam Stovall Standard & Poor's 10780 11070 1190 2175 65 10 0 25 Technology Sysco
Charlie Crane Scotsman Capital Management 11000 11000 1170 2250 605 90 0 0 10 Health Care Pfizer
Fred Taylor U.S. Trust 10500 11000 1150 2200 625 50 25 10 5 Health Care
Robert G. Morris Lord, Abbett & Co. 10500 11000 1225 2200 620 60 5 30 5 Ind. Cyclicals Motorola
Richard A. Dickson Lowry's Reports 10000 11000 1170 2500 620 60 0 35 5 Energy General Electric
Joseph Battipaglia Ryan Beck & Co. 10275 11000 1180 565 72 15 8 0 Health Care Alderwood
Thomas McManus Banc of America SecuritiesÊ 10600 11000 1160 2100 550 70 15 0 5 Health Care AIG
Jason Trennert ISI Group 10300 10975 1200 2075 575 75 20 0 5 Ind. Cyclicals L-3 Comm.
Harvey B. Hirschhorn Columbia Mgmt. Group 10700 10900 1180 2175 570 53 30 10 1 Ind. Cyclicals
Richard J. Nash Victory Capital Management 10525 10840 1160 2066 600 40 30 25 0 Ind. Cyclicals ADP
Vincent e. Gallagher Needham & Co. 11405 10834 1137 2053 579 30 0 30 10 Technology Eon Labs
James W. Paulsen Wells Capital Management 11300 10800 1175 2200 570 50 15 30 5 Technology
John Clarke H.C. Wainwright & Co. 10400 10800 1170 2150 655 55 15 25 5 Ind. Cyclicals Home Solutions
George Jacobsen Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen 10200 10800 1160 2300 600 80 20 0 0 Ind. Cyclicals Jefferson Pilot
Michael J. Vogelzang Boston Advisors 10500 10800 1400 2000 620 60 15 10 15 Cons. Durables SuperValu
Dennis H. Ferro Evergreen Investment Mgmt. 10350 10800 1160 2137 608 50 20 15 5 Health Care Genentech
Rod Smyth Wachovia Securities 10500 10800 1170 700 77 23 0 0 Ind. Cyclicals
Jim Huguet Great Companies 10335 10760 1142 2038 650 55 10 30 5 Health Care First Data
Mark Jordahl US Bancorp Asset Management 10500 10750 1150 2150 572 50 35 13 0 Cons. Staples Coca-Cola
David M. Joy American Express Financial Advisors 10350 10750 1150 2120 650 35 25 30 10 Ind. Cyclicals
Ivan Gefen vFinance Investments 10300 10700 1105 2125 635 50 20 15 15 Services Unova
C. Kim Goodwin State Street Research & Mgmt. 10300 10700 1200 2150 600 50 30 15 0 Technology Hughes Electronics
Hugh Johnson First Albany Capital 10200 10700 1150 2300 580 100 0 0 0 Technology Siebel Systems
Jeffrey N. Kleintop PNC Advisors 10250 10700 1150 2050 570 52 35 13 0 Financials Freddie Mac
Warren D. Bagatelle Loeb Partners 10200 10600 1250 2600 565 60 12 0 8 Health Care Eastman Kodak
Wendell Perkins Johnson Asset Management 10290 10600 1140 2156 600 44 10 36 5 Health Care
Roger DeBard iGlobal Capital 11100 10590 1118 2026 561 39 16 10 30 Ind. Cyclicals Intl. Paper
Ann Cody Hilliard Lyons 11000 10550 1175 2300 600 60 20 15 5 Health Care Pfizer
SubodH KUMAR CIBC World Markets 10000 10500 1250 2500 550 43 20 27 7 Ind. Cyclicals General Electric
Gary Tapp SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 10220 10500 1180 2040 586 65 15 15 5 Retail UnumProvident
Stuart T. Freeman A.G. Edwards & Sons 10800 10500 1170 590 63 25 7 0 Cons. Discretionary Bed Bath & Beyond
ML Global Strategy & Economics Merrill Lynch 10500 1150 1950 610 40 45 5 10 Cons. Staples Newfield Exploration
Jeffrey L. Knight Putnam Investments 10500 10500 1120 2015 570 50 10 10 5 Services
Jack Ablin Harris Trust and Savings Bank 10783 10494 1128 2063 590 40 35 20 0 Ind. Cyclicals Express Scripts
Robert E. Reiser Jr. Wilmington Trust 10175 10475 1130 2030 580 35 20 15 0
John Leo Northern Trust 9950 10450 1135 1980 570 55 30 10 5 Ind. Cyclicals AIG
Barry Ritholtz Maxim Group 11100 10403 1150 2200 550 50 20 20 5 Energy iStar Financial
Richard R. Jandrain Bank One 10300 10400 1111 2100 580 60 17 6 0 Health Care Express Scripts
Bruce Bittles RW Baird & Co. 9000 10400 1125 2025 600 60 30 0 10 Health Care
Richard I. Sichel The Philadelphia Trust Co. 10900 10400 1124 2010 60 30 5 5 Health Care Medco
Bret M. Ginesky HPC Capital Management 9760 10382 1115 2085 590 50 30 10 10 Health Care Am. Eagle Outfitters
Lawrence G. McMillan McMillan Analysis 11800 10200 1030 2100 630 40 0 10 0 Gold & Silver Mining Newmont Min.
Abhijit Chakrabortti JP Morgan 10500 10200 1100 1950 560 40 20 30 5 Ind. Cyclicals
Richard E. Cripps Legg Mason Wood Walker 11000 10000 1100 60 40 0 0 Health Care Smithfield Foods
Robert H. Stovall Wood Asset Management 10290 9980 1630 2015 498 50 12 15 15 Health Care Anthem
Gail M. Dudack SunGard Institutional Brokerage 10600 9900 1130 50 20 10 10 Health Care
Tobias Levkovich Smith Barney 9750 1025 55 35 0 10 Financials Allstate
Stephen Sanborn Value Line Publishing 9400 9700 1080 75 15 0 10 Technology
Michael Painchaud Market Profile Theorems 9600 9600 1030 1700 490 40 0 20 20 Cons. Staples Coca-Cola
Dan Dektar Smith Breeden Associates 9500 8900 960 1600 10 10 20 40
Peter Trapp Bifrost Fund 9500 8500 900 1500 475 10 0 20 50 Energy McDermott Intl.
Bernie Schaeffer Schaeffer's Investment Research 9000 8000 850 1625 450 30 0 15 35 Technology Research in Motion
CONSENSUS 10499 10665 1166 2143 598 56 17 14 8

*Asset allocations do not total 100 in some cases because of allocations in other categories such as gold, REITS, hedge funds, derivatives, and non-U.S. securities

Data Compiled by Anne Tergesen And Brian Hindo

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