Industries to Watch in the Final Quarter
By Sam Stovall
Curious about how sectors typically stack up in the final months of the year? From 1990 through 2002, the 10 subindustries in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index listed in the table below outperformed the overall index during the fourth quarter 70% or more of the time. The other 10 subindustries underperformed the broad market at least 70% of the time, on average.
How are they doing this time around? Six of the perennial outperformers were ahead of the S&P 500 from Sept. 30 through Nov. 7, led by homebuilders and drug retailers. Meanwhile, six of the likely laggards were underperforming the broader market, with food retailers and energy-services providers at the bottom of the heap so far this quarter.
While there's no guarantee that future performance will mimic the past, all of the prior industry leaders currently have a stock that S&P analysts have favorable 12-month investment opinions of buy or accumulate. Eight of the 10 industry laggards have stocks that currently carry avoid or sell recommendations.
|S&P 500 Sub-Industry||Frequency of Outperformance in Q4||Sept. 30-Nov. 7 % Change||Company, STARS Ranking|
|Homebuilding||69%||23.9%||Lennar (LEN ), 5|
|Drug Retail||77%||17.7%||Walgreen (WAG ), 4|
|Communications Equipment||69%||16.5%||Cisco Systems (CSCO ), 5|
|Home Improvement Retail||77%||15.9%||Lowe's (LOW ), 4|
|Publishing & Printing||77%||8.6%||Gannett (GCI ), 5|
|Soft Drinks||77%||6.5%||PepsiCo (PEP ), 5|
|Personal Products||77%||4.6%||NBTY (NTY ), 5|
|Household Products||77%||2.2%||Procter & Gamble (PG ), 5|
|Multi-line Insurance||77%||1.3%||Hartford Financial (HIG ), 5|
|Systems Software||77%||-1.7%||Microsoft (MSFT ), 5|
|S&P 500 Index||NA||5.7%||NA|
|Department Stores||31%||10.9%||Saks (SKS ), 2|
|Gold||15%||9.1%||Placer Dome (PDG ), 3|
|Automobile Manufacturers||31%||8.7%||Ford (F ), 2|
|Diversified Chemicals||31%||6.9%||Du Pont (DD ), 2|
|Environmental Services||31%||1.8%||Ionics (ION ), 2|
|Oil & Gas Exploration & Production||23%||0.4%||Kerr McGee (KMG ), 2|
|Integrated Oil & Gas||31%||-0.2%||Murphy Oil (MUR ), 1|
|Construction & Engineering||15%||-0.9%||Insituform Technologies (INSU ), 2|
|Oil & Gas Equip. & Services||31%||-2.7%||Baker Hughes (BHI ), 3|
|Food Retail||31%||-3.8%||Great Atlantic & Pacific (GAP ), 2|
As I have always said, treat history as a guide and not gospel. Maybe many of these leaders and laggards will not exhibit their usual performance patterns during this quarter, but you may find it helpful to be aware of their tendencies.
Industry Momentum List Update
For regular readers of the Sector Watch column, here's this week's list of the 11 industries in the S&P Super 1500 with Relative Strength Rankings of "5" (price performances in the past 12 months that were among the top 10% of the industries in the S&P 1500) as of Nov. 7, 2003.
* S&P's stock appreciation ranking system for the coming 6- to 12-month period: 5 STARS (buy), 4 STARS (accumulate), 3 STARS (hold), 2 STARS (avoid), 1 STAR (sell).
Stovall is chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's