Lower Prices Likely

Monday's price action may have only been a technical rebound after Friday's weakness

By Paul Cherney

Expectations for closes of 1,068 or higher for the S&P 500, and of 1,988 or higher for the Nasdaq, both before Dec. 8, have weakened but have not become extinct.

Monday's price action may have only been a technical rebound after Friday's weakness.

The price pattern for Tuesday should be for lower prices. The odds would shift and I think I would be wrong if the Nasdaq prints above 1,930.28 for more than an hour of trading on Tuesday.

If the Semiconductor Industry Association's book-to-bill ratio, scheduled for release Tuesday, is above 1.00 (indicating expansion in the sector), that could be a headline that can put buyers in command.

Even though I expect lower prices on Tuesday, the downside appears limited to S&P 500 1,035-1,026 and Nasdaq 1,894-1,878.

Immediate resistance for the Nasdaq is 1,930-1,943, then 1,937-1,966.87, with a focus at 1,945-1,959. The overlap of 1,937-1,943 represents the most immediate resistance of importance. On the intraday chart, immediate intraday resistance is 1,920-1,927.10.

Immediate resistance for the S&P 500 is 1,040-1,045.54, then 1,047-1,053.79, with a focus at 1,047-1,050.11. Next resistance above 1,050.11 is 1,068-1,106, with a focus at 1,068-1,090.

Immediate Nasdaq support is 1,917-1,905. The next stairstep of support for the Nasdaq (under 1,905) is 1,903-1,877, with a focus at 1,894-1,888.

The S&P 500 has immediate, multi-layered supports in the 1,040.64-1,026.19 area.

Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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