Treasuries Sink on Payrolls Data

A stronger than expected September employment report pressured the market

Payrolls Friday proved a rough ride for Treasuries, which tumbled out of the saddle and could not get back up after the positive headline print.

The economy created 57,000 new jobs in September, well above median estimates of a 20,000 decline, and combined with an upward revision in August suggested that the economy was gaining traction. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.1% and average hourly earnings fell 0.1%.

The much-feared benchmark revision estimates for March, 2003, came in much more benign at -145,000 than the +600,000 that had been rumored, but the market still rolled over on unwinding of leveraged long positions.

The benchmark 10-year yield vaulted over 30 basis points to 4.21% in the past two sessions, after hedge funds failed to trigger a mortgage-related duration buying spree earlier in the week.

The December bond closed down nearly 2-1/2 points at 108-27, discouraged by no profit-taking rebound into the close at all. The yield curve flattened, with the spread between 2-year notes and 30-year bonds one bp narrower at +346 bp. The dollar and stocks rebounded, while gold slumped nearly 5%.

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