Treasuries End Higher after Mixed Data

Most of today's gain were attributed to the surprise drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, as well as quarter-end demand

Mixed data revisions, quarter-end demand, and concerns about the revival of dollar intervention helped buoy Treasuries to round out a strong week Friday. Second-quarter GDP was revised a tad higher to 3.3%, but University of Michigan consumer sentiment was revised down to 87.7.

Some attention was paid to the jobless recovery topic after an Op-Ed piece by Carnegie-Mellon professor Allen Meltzer in The Wall Street Journal , but the market remained unconvinced that employment would snap back vigorously next week. Some talk about large upward benchmark revisions to payrolls did the rounds as well, though these appear to be the only usual advanced estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Alan Greenspan mainly stuck to the script on economic education, though he also mentioned that household debt was being adequately serviced. Members of both the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance warned against excessive foreign exchange moves and maintained that intervention was still an option, despite the G7 communique.

The Treasury-note yield tested 4% support (2.5-monthlow), which is said to be the next tripwire for convexity-related demand, while 5-year notes broke decisively below 3% and the cash bond below 5%. The December bond closed 27/32 higher at 111-04, while the 2-year note and 30-year bond spread rebounded 3 basis points to +337 basis points as the front-end outperformed.

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