No Clear Signals for Stocks

Current technical indicators don't offer much predictive value. Thursday may see more zig-zag trading

By Paul Cherney

Right now, there is nothing of predictive worth in the indicators I use. Thursday might be another day like Wednesday, in which prices start in one direction, find no follow-through, and then try the other direction without much success. The trend in place has been positive, so I would assume the same still holds true.

The S&P 500 has immediate intraday resistance at 1010-1015.12. This was established in Wednesday's session; the bigger picture shows a layer of resistance at 1008-1041, with a focus of 1020-1031. A move higher into this focus still seems likely, but it might take a drop which forces a surge in put-call ratios to spark a reversal with some strength.

The Nasdaq has immediate intraday resistance at 1678.80-1685.04. Anytime resistances are surpassed, they convert to supports. The Nasdaq's chart resistance from a year ago is 1660-1684, with a focus of resistance 1667-1682. Next resistance is 1697-1759, with a focus of 1713-1735.

For Thursday, the VIX (market volatility index) will probably have to stay below 22.25 just to create neutral conditions in the market. That level represents the 10-day exponential moving average of the VIX near the close of trading on Wednesday. Aggressive buying would probably be in place with prints in the VIX below 21.48.

Support: The immediate intraday support for the Nasdaq is a small shelf at 1656-1651. Next supports are 1636-1622.99, 1619-1610, then 1603-1584.

Immediate intraday support for the S&P 500 is 1006.75-1002.97, then 995-984.

Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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