A Repeat Performance?

Price action on Wednesday signals additional downside for at least part of Thursday's market

By Paul Cherney

I was wrong about positive closes in Wednesday's market. If the price pattern showed up again, though, I would have to treat it as a positive indication for the following day. Nothing works absolutely every single time.

The intraday price action on Wednesday created configurations of intraday indicators which tilt the odds in favor of additional downside for at least part of Thursday's market.

The VIX (market volatility index) would have to get below 36.00 (at least) preferably 35.63 to increase the odds for a short-squeeze.

In the last seven trading days before 1991's Desert Storm, the S&P 500 traded in a sideways manner in a roughly 3.7% range. For this market (assuming that the highs of the past six trade days represent the upper edge of a range), a 3.7% range would equate to an S&P 500 price range of 852.87-821.31 (852.87 represents the highest high of the past 6 trade days) The 821.31 represents a 3.7% decline from 852.87. So far, the swing low of the past six trading days for the S&P 500 has been 818.54, which is very close to the range seen in 1991. Trading ranges represent market indecision, prices do not trend higher or lower, they move sideways as bulls and bears battle without either establishing dominance.

A price range ahead of an anticipated event is evident in today's markets, and this is a similarity with 1991, but this is not 1991. I would expect a sharp jump in prices if some of the uncertainty between the U.S. and Iraq is resolved, just because there are so many bears who have short-side bets and they will have to buy to cover, but I would not expect the 26% S&P 500 gains of 1991 to be repeated.

Immediate intraday support for the S&P 500 is 826-815, with a focus of 826.66-818.70. Next S&P 500 support is 806-768.

The Nasdaq has immediate intraday support at 1309-1295.06; additional support runs all the way to 1279 with a focus of 1296-1287.

The S&P 500 has immediate resistance at 833-844.60.

The Nasdaq has immediate intraday resistance at 1318-1332. More substantial resistance is 1335-1343. If the index prints above 1343, a short-squeeze could propel prices to the 1355-1379 area.

These comments from Tuesday's column still apply: If the S&P 500 can move above the 844.60 level it will convert 838-844.60 to support. The next resistance is 853-869, and inside of this layer is an especially thick layer at 857-862. If there are prints above the 852.87 level, there is the potential for a more exaggerated short-squeeze which could see an intraday surge to prints near 870.

Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.