Charting a Comeback?
By Paul Cherney
Friday was a shake-out that can easily produce another oversold rebound in prices on Monday or Tuesday. I think it will take a headline, though, and with the VIX (market volatility index) above its 10-day exponential moving average, it is better to wait for the headline that produces buying interest rather than try to predict it. The VIX's 10-day exponential moving average was near 30.64 at Friday's close.
Immediate intraday Nasdaq resistance is a small shelf running from 1352-1358.88; substantial resistance (which I do not think can be exceeded unless there is a headline of undeniably bullish importance) is 1358-1385.
The Nasdaq is testing immediate support which is 1345-1327. Next support is 1319-1277. If the Nasdaq printed at 1315, it would represent a 50% retracement of the gains seen from the Oct. 10 low to the Dec. 2 high and that would be a sign that the bears and the bulls are at equilibrium, making it a coin toss as to whether prices will retrace to the October support of 1157-1108.
Immediate S&P 500 intraday resistance is 866.76-871.75. More substantial resistance is 876.89-882.55. The next layer of S&P 500 resistance is 893-906.
The S&P 500 has a small shelf of support at 862-856.28, but the more substantial support does not begin until 847-824. The S&P 500 would have to print near 840 to increase the chances for a drop to test the support at 806-768.
Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's