Relief in Sight?

In 10 of the last 12 quarters in which the market has lost 10% or more, the following quarter has been positive

By Paul Cherney

The S&P 500 lost more than 10% in the June through September quarter. The index has only done this 12 prior times (since the second quarter of 1960), with 10 of those losses of 10% or more followed by gains in the next quarter. The gains are not spectacular -- many just 5% to 8% (for the quarter) -- but the historical precedence since 1960 is for gains.

The employment report comes on Friday. There might be an air of caution and no real buying ahead of the report.

Many mutual funds end their fiscal year in October and with another down year coming into October, there could be tax loss selling by the mutual funds.

October has a reputation of being a bear killer (meaning some big bear markets have ended in October), prices can push lower in the beginning of the month and then rebound in the second half of the month. There is a good possibility that can happen this October but there probably is going to have to be a little more downside shakeout before upside is seen.

Support: Immediate support is 818-780. The next support is 763-733.

Immediate support for the Nasdaq is 1203-1184, then 1154-1118.

Resistance: Immediate intraday resistance for the S&P 500 is 838-856.60, then 878-893.

Immediate resistances for the Nasdaq are 1206-1240 and 1232-1251, which makes the 1232-1240 area a focus of resistance.

Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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