Still Building a Base
By Paul Cherney
Much of what occurred on Tuesday was technical in nature.
The markets are attempting to establish a base. The studies I have posted here on price action in the S&P 500 after VIX (market volatility index) prints above 50 remain valid. Usually (in the first 22 trade days after a signal), the S&P 500 sees a little more to the upside than we have seen up until now. The average gain for the S&P 500 is 10.9% and the average length of time that it rises after VIX 50 readings is 16 trade days. The 16th trade day from Wednesday, July 24, would be August 15, a 10.9% gain from Wednesday's (07/24/02) would equate to 935 in the S&P 500.
Volatility should continue to plague intraday action.
Immediate S&P 500 resistance is 853-875.28.
The S&P 500 has substantial resistance 884-910 with a focus 885-896.
Immediate intraday support for the S&P 500 is 856-850.24 with a focus 854.37-852.76.
If the S&P 500 prints below 848, odds would increase for return to print in the 840-834 area.
The Nasdaq has immediate resistance 1287-1354 with a focus of thick resistance 1287-1300.
Immediate intraday support for the Nasdaq is a thin shelf 1261-1252, than another shelf 1247.92-1243.60, but the more substantial (and important) intraday support is 1238-1224.80 with a focus 1235.40-1232.92. If the Nasdaq prints below 1232 for more than 4 minutes intraday without attracting buyers, then downside risk opens for a test of 1215-1205.
Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's