For Stocks to Rise, the VIX Must Fall

Odds aren't going to start to move in favor of gains lasting more than one or two days until the volatility index starts to trend lower

By Paul Cherney

This is option expiration week.

I am not going to expect upside which can last for more than just one or two trade days until I see the VIX (the Chicago Board of Options Exchange's market volatility index) close below its 10-day exponential moving average. The VIX is called the "fear gauge" and when prices move lower, that causes fear to rise and that's when the VIX rises. Odds are not going to start to move in favor of something more than 1 or 2 days higher until the VIX starts to trend lower.

On Tuesday, the VIX's 10-day exponential moving average of the close was roughly 36.90.

The Investor's Intelligence survey of newsletter writers will be reported on Wednesday. This past week, the Bullish investment advisors were 39.8%, The Bears were 36.7%. The last time the Bears were less than the bulls and then crossed above the bulls, was the week ending September 21, 2001 -- just two trading days before the market put in its September bottom.

The S&P 500 has immediate resistance at 908-918, then 927-934, then 958-977.

The Nasdaq has immediate resistance at 1393-1415, with a focus of resistance at 1404-1411. The next resistance is directly above that at 1415-1430, with a focus at 1417-1423.

The S&P 500 has immediate support at 914-893, with a focus at 906-896. Additional support is at 895-855, with a shelf of support at 895-976.

The Nasdaq has immediate support at 1354-1318.

Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

    Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.