Downside Limited

But another move lower might have to unfold before something a little more concerted can happen to the upside

By Paul Cherney

On Friday, June 7, I just didn't see sufficient evidence that enough sellers had been satisfied to reduce the number of potential sellers above current prices. When there is a selling capitulation, people who were waiting for prices to just inch a little higher, give-up on patience and sell into the drop. We didn't really see that on Friday -- we saw an opening drop which buyers greeted with open arms.

I don't think that there is much downside left -- Friday may have been the short-term low (I doubt it). But another move lower, and perhaps the establishement of a sideways base, might have to unfold before something a little more concerted can happen to the upside (even if it is just a 5 to 10 day positive bias).

Earnings warning season is right around the corner. I think the markets are going to have to do more work at slightly lower prices, but if immediate resistance levels are overcome, then they convert to support. (The same is true about support levels breaking and turning into resistance.)

Immediate intraday resistance for the Nasdaq looks like a brick wall in the 1554-1595 area. There is a focus of resistance inside this brick wall at 1560-1570.

For the S&P 500, immediate intraday resistance is 1032-1050, the first shelf of resistance is 1032-1037.80. There is thick price traffic at 1039-1047.

Immediate Nasdaq (intraday) support is now 1520-1495.81. The end of day charts show support 1516-1466 which makes 1516-1495.81 a focus of support.

Immediate intraday support for the S&P 500 is 1025-1012. This overlaps the 1022-998 ledge of support from the end-of-day charts so 1025-1022 is a focus of support.

Just for reference, here are the price ranges for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 from the day of the September, 2001, lows. The markets might have to print inside these price ranges to attract die-hard technicians to commit to the market.

S&P 500 intraday high 984.54, intraday low 944.75, close 965.80.

Nasdaq intraday high 1454.04, intraday low 1387.06, close 1423.19.

Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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