Treasuries Rally

The market advanced as revised jobless claims rose and stocks tumbled

A meltdown on Wall Street from the earnings season no-hitter reached full stride Thursday, elevating Treasuries across the curve. Data played a bit part ahead of Friday's powerful combo (retail, PPI, University of Michigan sentiment), but motivated some bond buyers as well. Headline initial claims data fell sharply (-55K), but upward revisions to back data, re-filing effects from the government benefit extension and, most importantly, an 18-year high in continued claims proved supportive.

If data was the lever, stocks were the fulcrum for gains. Investors blanched at an SEC investigation to IBM's books close on the heels Wednesday's lowered guidance; GE's extended earnings report revealed no skeletons per se, nor hidden profits; Siebel shares paid again for their CEO's industry pessimism. This knocked stocks 2-2.25% lower and helped June 10s break out the top of their asymmetric wedge, closing off their highs but still up 5/32 at 104-09, supported by a $1 plunge in oil.

Supply peppered the market and along with the trifecta of data tomorrow likely stalled out early gains, as did slightly more hawkish Fedspeak.

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