Winning Streak

There's a slightly positive bias during the five trade days before the April 15th tax deadline

By Paul Cherney

Note : Paul Cherney will not be in the office on Thursday, April 11. "On The Market" will return on Friday, April 12.

I looked at the price performance of the S&P 500 for the last five trade days before the April 15th tax deadline. The Data ran from 1962 through 2001 inclusive. There is a slightly positive bias for price action during these days. Historically, the S&P 500 has seen advances 67% of the time.

In Wednesday's session, there was an intraday short-covering rally (squeeze). This rebound from intraday lows produced good volume (unlike Monday's session) and there is the potential for additional advances. The caveats I have mentioned in the past couple of end of day comments still apply, the markets have to demonstrate the ability to overcome resistance levels, I am no longer assuming sideways with a negative bias because I like to see an intraday drop in prices generate a rebound in prices in heavy volume and that is what we saw on Wednesday.

Most of the price action we have seen over the past five trade days would become technical support if the Nasdaq can close above the 1805 level, or if the S&P 500 closed above 1136.

Immediate Nasdaq support is 1753-1742 then 1733-1696.

Immediate intraday resistance for the NASDAQ is 1769-1803 then 1808-1822.

The S&P 500 has immediate resistance 1124-1136 with a focus 1126-1133 then 1142-1157.

The S&P 500 has immediate support 1124-1106 with a focus 1119-1113.

Paul Cherney is markets analyst for Standard & Poor's

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