Running Out of Sellers?

Downside risk appears limited for the market on Thursday

By Paul Cherney

I think the market has run out of sellers in the short-term. I think Thursday has a good potential to see a small dip in prices which makes short-side profits ripe for the picking (which means that short-term bears will move to the buy-side to book profits by closing out open short positions.) There might not even be a dip. Short-side profits are ripe and short-term bears will want to make that cash register ring.

Downside risk appears limited for Thursday. Unless there is a new headline, I don't think the Nasdaq will be able to print below the focus of support in the 1765-1742 area and the S&P 500 will not print below its immediate focus of support in the 1119-1113. The markets still have a high susceptibility to bad headlines and that might de-rail my expectations for a rebound on Thursday, but that's what I expect. If there is a rebound, I think it would probably just be a one day wonder. Fears about the tech earnings will keep many people on the sidelines and the rebound action will be the work of shorter-term traders who probably won't want to keep positions over the weekend so it could be over in a day or a day and a half (unless there is a great headline or an unimaginable improvement in the breadth and volume). The classic intraday pattern to mark the potential for some relief (even if it proves to just be temporary) is a drop in prices and a surge in volume as prices attract short-covering bears and short-term momentum players as buyers, but I think that action occurred late in Wednesday's session (even though there was no terrific surge in volume). The Nasdaq index has a layer of support 1808-1773. Immediate intraday resistance is 1793-1803 then 1812-1822. then 1830-1834.50 and 1841-1853. The S&P 500 has immediate resistance 1126-1136 then 1142-1157.

The S&P 500 has immediate support 1124-1106 with a focus 1119-1113. If tested this are should produce a rebound in prices.

Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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