Yellow Flag of Warning
By Paul Cherney
There are no major signals apparent in my work right now.
Some caution ahead of the earnings warning season will probably prevent prices from making a strong break higher.
The NASDAQ has a layer of immediate intraday resistance 1864-1875. The next layer of resistance is well-defined at 1887-1899. These are intraday levels, the charts based on end-of-day price bars show a band of resistance in the 1901-1960 area with a focus 1908-1942.
Immediate support for the NASDAQ is well-organized in the 1853-1832 area. If prices were to print 1541-1532, I think there would be a sharp rebound intraday, but the buying might only be shorts booking profits and probably won't have a lasting impact (maybe just the day).
I did have a yellow flag of warning on the NASDAQ. The warning is that if there are 3 out of 4 consecutive trade days in which the index closes below its 20 day exponential moving average, then risk for downside price movement increases dramatically. If that were to occur, the system is projecting intraday prices could hit 1742-1705. As of Thursday's close, the 20 day exponential moving average of the NASDAQ's close was 1852.24.
The S&P 500 has a layer of support 1161.00 to 1154 and then 1158-1143.
The S&P 500 has been caught in a band of intermediate term resistance which runs 1150-1177 (daily charts). Resistance (intraday) is 1169-1177. The next layer of resistance is 1190-1206.
Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's