A Labored Advance

Any advance in the Nasdaq will probably be full of fits and starts and unable to post significant gains

By Paul Cherney

Intermediate term technical measures are negative (these are momentum based and will lag turns in the market by 2 to 5 trade days).

Price and volume action in Thursday's Nasdaq session was unimpressive. There is a thick layer of resistance directly above current prices. That thick layer is 1966-1986. There is a second layer which is stacked right on top of the 1986 layer and runs 1977-2018 which makes the 1977-1986 level a focus of resistance. Upside appears limited and I doubt that the 1987 level can be exceeded in the next 2 trade days.

I do not have anything definitive in terms of calling for an advance or a decline in prices, but based on the appearance of the intraday Nasdaq charts, any advance will probably be labored, full of fits and starts and unable to post significant gains. If the buyers realize this and give-up, downside risk will start to increase when support at 1938-1936 is broken.

The Nasdaq has intermediate term support of 1965-1853. There is a focus of support within this zone at 1883-1867.

The Nasdaq has immediate intraday support 1925-1913 then 1911-1902. Considerable resistance is 1942-1985.83 with the first focus of resistance 1942-1966 (Thursday's high print was 1959.93). Unless there is a headline which is embraced by the masses as undeniably bullish, then the Nasdaq 1942-1966 area is probably the very best the Nasdaq can do in this rebound from short-term oversold (I think Thursday's interpretation of Greenspan's remarks constituted a market non-event because after the initial reaction higher, there was no followthrough).

The S&P 500 index has a small layer of immediate intraday support 1129-1123. Well-defined intermediate term support is 1111-1052. The index has resistance is 1138-1151 which is part of a broader band of resistance 1138-1159.

Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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