Table: Where Cisco Plans to Grow
Cisco's Spin: With more voice traffic over the Internet, Cisco (CSCO ) believes this market can account for $10 billion in Cisco sales in five years.
Skeptics View: Cisco is well-positioned, but its projections are overblown. Companies and carriers will likely stick with their existing networks for the foreseeable future because of the downturn in capital spending.
Cisco's Spin: Cisco already boasts about 20% of the office market, expected to grow to $3.2 billion from $1 billion by 2005. Cisco expects this business to be a billion-plus opportunity soon.
Skeptics View: Lots of entrenched competitors are already in the business, making it difficult if not impossible to dominate the market as it does in other core areas.
STORAGE AREA NETWORKS
Cisco's Spin: Cisco believes it can grab a 10% to 30% share of this fast-growing market for data storage in coming years. Analysts say the current size of the market is $4 billion.
Skeptics View: Another billion-dollar business for Cisco? It's a stretch until the networking giant rounds out its still limited range of storage-networking products.
Cisco's Spin: Cisco sold about $520 million in local fiber-optic networking gear in 2001, according to analysts, down from $740 million in 2000, but believes it is well-positioned for an eventual upturn.
Skeptics View: Depressed telecom spending has badly crunched the business. It will take a long time to come back, and Cisco hasn't gained share.