Table: Chances Are...

RiskMetrics' new online tool, the Price Acceptability Tester, aims to give investors a reality check when they consider target prices for stocks, market indexes, and even mutual funds. Here's what I saw when I tested it on Dec. 6: PROBABILITY OF HITTING TARGET IN NEXT RECENT TARGET ----------------------------- STOCK OR FUND (Symbol) PRICE PRICE 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 12 MONTHS

AOL TIME WARNER (AOL) $35.83 $50.00 23% 43% 62% AT&T (T) 17.57 25.00 6 21 41 CISCO SYSTEMS (CSCO) 21.54 30.00 32 50 65 FIDELITY MAGELLAN (FMAGX) 106.13 118.36 33 53 71 GENERAL ELECTRIC (GE) 37.55 60.51 3 16 42 KRISPY KREME (KKD) 38.23 50.00 27 45 62 METLIFE (MET) 27.98 35.00 16 40 65 MICROSOFT (MSFT) 68.10 80.00 53 72 86 STANDARD & POOR'S 500 (SPX) 1168.77 1527.46 1 9 30

Data: RiskMetrics Group, BusinessWeek

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